US Elections: Kamala Harris regains slight lead over Donald Trump in new poll, but voter turnout is key

US Vice President Kamala Harris regained a slight lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters nationally in the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll. However, the report suggested that the race is close enough to leave the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election to the Electoral College.

"Turnout is key," it added. The new poll gauged "vote preferences among likely voters".

According to the new ABC News/Ipsos poll, Harris and Donald Trump are divided by only 2 percentage points among all registered voters (49-47%). "This goes to a slight Harris advantage among likely voters, 51-47%, with some pro-Harris groups showing a bit more propensity to vote," the report added.
 

Trump or Harris, who can better handle key issues

The new poll further showed that Trump was believed to better tackle the issues of immigration, the economy, inflation, and the Middle East conflict than Harris. Meanwhile, Harris was thought to better handle the issues of the middle class, abortion, healthcare, and “protecting American democracy.”

The poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, with fieldwork by Ipsos, showed that the shares assigning topmost importance to the economy or inflation “have declined by 7 points apiece since September.”

What this implies?

This shows that any shift from economic concerns likely would aid Harris, given her shortfall in trust to handle the issue and dissatisfaction with the Biden administration's economic performance.

Compared with earlier this month, Harris has reportedly regained a more customary Democratic advantage among Hispanic people and widened her advantage among suburban women, while remaining strong in core groups including Black people. 

Meanwhile, Trump pushed back in rural areas and among non-college white men, and runs competitively among younger men, ABC news reported.

The US elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with early voting taking place in few states.