French Premier Warns of Market ‘Storm’ If Budget Voted Down

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier said the country faces a “storm” in financial markets if an “unlikely but possible” alliance of lawmakers across the political spectrum rejects his government’s budget proposals and votes it out of power.

The premier’s political survival hangs on whether French far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s will back a potential no-confidence vote when he presents final versions of the 2025 government and social-security budget bills in coming days and weeks. 

“There will probably be a rather serious storm and serious turbulences in financial markets” in case of a no-confidence vote, Barnier said in an interview with French TV channel TF1. “If the government falls, emergency measures will be taken,” which won’t cover the full year.

Barnier went on TV after his boss, President Emmanuel Macron, reportedly said he believed that Le Pen would carry out her threats, and that Barnier would be out soon. Macron’s office denied he made such comments.

The French prime minister also said he’ll probably have to use a constitutional provision known as 49.3 to bypass a parliamentary vote and adopt next year’s budget as his government lacks a majority in the lower house. 

But using the tool could lead to a no-confidence vote, which would need the backing of both the far right and the left-wing alliance New Popular Front to go through. Both groups have criticized Barnier’s budget proposals.

Barnier repeated his aim to lower the budget deficit to about 5% of GDP next year, compared with 6.2% expected in 2024, through €60 billion in cuts and additional taxes. 

On Tuesday, the European Commission called his plan “realistic and credible.” 

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