Heavy monsoon rains likely across northwest India over next 4-5 days, says IMD

India's northwestern states are bracing for an active monsoon spell, with heavy to very heavy rainfall expected over the next five days. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued alerts for several regions, signalling potential weather disruptions and heavy showers in the region.

The IMD has forecast isolated very heavy rainfall in eastern Rajasthan and projected similar conditions in Uttarakhand throughout the week. Heavy rainfall is also anticipated in Haryana-Chandigarh, West Uttar Pradesh, and West Rajasthan on 31 July. The northernmost regions, including Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh, are set to experience intense rainfall on 31 July and 1 August.

The monsoon trough is currently active and positioned south of its normal location at mean sea level, with expectations of a gradual northward shift over the next four to five days, the weather bureau said in a statement. 

Read this | Mint Primer: Ever seen the rain? The price of a truant monsoon

After heavy rains led to flood-like conditions in parts of western Maharashtra last week, the IMD has predicted very heavy rainfall for India's western coast and central region this week. Specifically, the Gujarat region is expected to experience very heavy rainfall on Monday, with the nearby areas of Saurashtra and Kutch likely to receive similar conditions on both Monday and Tuesday, according to the IMD.

Further along India's western coast, the Konkan and Goa regions are forecast to receive very heavy rainfall on 1 August. Eastern Madhya Pradesh is expected to experience similar conditions from 31 July to 2 August, while the ghat areas of central Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh will likely receive heavy rains on 1-2 August.

The monsoon, which moved sluggishly in June, picked pace in July, bringing critical rainfall to southern regions such as Kerala, Mahe, coastal Karnataka, and parts of interior Karnataka. These areas are forecast to see significant rainfall on Monday and Tuesday, along with northern regions of Tamil Nadu, including Karaikal and the union territory of Puducherry.

Odisha, along with parts of northeastern states such as Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and Arunachal Pradesh will receive very heavy rainfall this week, the IMD said. Parts of West Bengal which are close to the Himalayas and Sikkim will also receive isolated very heavy rainfall this week, it added.

Monsoon rains are crucial for India's agriculture, as July marks the primary sowing season across the country. At the start of this month, the IMD had forecast that India will likely see above-normal rainfall in July, raising concerns about potential floods in the western Himalayan states and river basins in central region.

The IMD has also projected heavy to very heavy rainfall in isolated places across Uttarakhand, West Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Gujarat, Kerala, Mahe, and coastal Karnataka. Additional heavy rainfall is expected in Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Madhya Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, South Interior Karnataka, and Odisha.

Despite the monsoon's arrival, certain regions continue to experience residual heatwave conditions from May and June. Minimum temperatures remain notably above normal—by 3.1 to 5 degrees Celsius—in parts of Rajasthan, Bihar, Jammu, Kashmir, and eastern Uttar Pradesh.

Also read | With a sombre start, spectre of a disappointing monsoon season lurks

The IMD reported above-normal minimum temperatures in the Haryana-Delhi-Chandigarh corridor, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, western Uttar Pradesh, coastal Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and parts of Tamil Nadu. Meanwhile, Vidarbha in Maharashtra recorded below-normal minimum temperatures, providing some respite from the heat.