Donald Trump or Kamala Harris – when exactly will we know who the next US President is?

The US Election 2024 is in its final week. On November 5 – the Election Day – the US voters will decide whether Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Vice-President Kamala Harris will lead the country.

Trump would be the first former president to win a non-consecutive term since Grover Cleveland in the 1890s, while Harris would be the first woman president if she secures a victory.

But when will we know who will be the 47th President of the United States? When will the actual results be out? Well, that is not easy to tell.

The next US President will be inaugurated on January 6, 2025.

News Outlets Call the Results

Usually, a winner is projected or called by US news outlets. Their experts crunch numbers from surveys and the actual number of votes counted. And when these news organisations are sure that a candidate has an unbeatable lead, they call the elections.

Based on the available results, a candidate must win 270 of the 538 votes (Electoral College) to become President of the United States.

Ideally, some projections will start soon after the polls close on Election night on November 5 (evening) after the polls close. However, the overall winner might not be clear for hours or even days after Election night, especially if the race is very close in key swing states and there are a lot of postal ballots to count.

Even then, the official final numbers don't come until weeks later. Also, either side could contest the results.

What happened in 2020?

Democratic nominee Joe Biden's win in the 2020 US election wasn't officially declared until November 7, four days after the November 3 Election Day.

The results were confirmed only after the numbers from Pennsylvania, a key swing state, came in. The swing state provided Biden with 20 electoral college votes, taking him over the minimum 270 electoral votes required to win the race

Much as it happens on counting days in India, early trends can indicate a win for a candidate, and this can swing later as more and more ballots (EVM’s in India’s case) are counted.

Losing Candidate Concedes

In some cases, the results are officially confirmed as soon as the losing candidate concedes defeat after Election Night.

In 2016, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton conceded to Republican Donald Trump on November 9, the morning after the election.

Republican John McCain conceded in the 2008 US Election on Election Day, shortly even before polls in the last few states had closed. Democrat Barack Obama won the elections. In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney conceded to President Barack Obama during the early hours of November 7, the morning after the Election night.

Tight Races

The result will also depend on how close the race is. If the result is a landslide in favour of one candidate or another then we may know the result on the Election night as most outlets will declare a winner. But such chances are very bleak in 2024 US Elections since the election is expected to be close.

In US Election 2000, the tight battle between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W Bush was only settled by the US Supreme Court on December 12.

Electoral College

Voters do not directly elect the President and the Vice President of the United States. They actually vote for the electors to represent their state. Once the votes are counted, the Electoral College - a body of people representing the states of the US – formally casts votes for the election of the president and vice president.

These electors formally cast the deciding votes for the president and vice president during a December meeting of the Electoral College. This year, the vote will be held on December 17.

These votes are then sent to the President of the Senate – the Vice President of United States.

On January 6, 2025, a joint session of Congress meets to count and certify the electoral college votes, formally concluding the voting process and inaugurating the next President.

Voting Time

Voting takes place in US in different timings depending on which of the six time zones a particular state falls. This is unlike India where voting is held around the same time across the country during general elections.

Then millions of US citizens cast their vote early. Early voting takes place remotely, such as via postal voting or in person, usually in designated early voting polling stations. The availability and time periods for early voting vary among jurisdictions and types of election.

More than 44 million Americans have cast an early ballot so far this election cycle, according to a New York Times report. US has 186.5 million eligible voters.

Counting

Counting in the US begins as soon as polls close on Election Day. In-person, mail-in, and early votes are aggregated across the country. Once the vote count is verified, state officials certify the results.