Calls for regulatory investigation into alleged stock market manipulation through exit polls have got louder. Rajya Sabha MP Saket Gokhale has written to Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) demanding an investigation into the exit polls, specifically by Axis MyIndia.
In his letter to Sebi Chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch, Gokhale alleged that Axis MyIndia massively inflated the seat numbers for BJP-NDA in its exit polls, which subsequently triggered a rally in the Indian stock market. However, a substantial discrepancy emerged between the actual election results and the exit poll predictions, resulting in a significant stock market crash the following day.
Gokhale is a Member of Parliament in the upper house from All India Trinamool Congress (TMC).
“I've written to SEBI demanding an investigation into the exit polls (specifically Axis MyIndia) which massively inflated the seat numbers for BJP-NDA. In Bengal, they predicted 26-31 seats for BJP which actually got just 12 seats. That's an exaggeration of a whooping 116-158%. This is way beyond any standard margin of error,” Gokhale wrote in a post on X.
On the back of exit polls, stock markets spiked massively on Monday. And after the results, the stock market crashed to an unprecedented level on Tuesday, he noted.
The TMC leader has asked SEBI to investigate if there were entities that booked profits through selling on 3rd June and made even more profits on 4th June by short selling. He has also asked the regulator to investigate whether any of these entities have direct or indirect links with the BJP or with pollsters like Axis MyIndia.
“The exit polls were clearly manipulated to rally the stock market. Lakhs of crores of investors' money was later wiped off yesterday after the markets crashed. There must be an investigation to determine if pollsters like Axis MyIndia intentionally inflated the exit polls for the BJP. This is important because Axis MyIndia also had BJP as a client,” Gokhale said.
He further added that the investigation must also determine whether the BJP and any poll agencies have made crores by manipulating the stock markets through exit polls.
The India Today-Axis MyIndia poll predicted 361- 401 seats for the BJP-led NDA. However, the actual final results show the BJP-led NDA leading/winning on 292 seats, a discrepancy of 23 - 37%. Moreover, the same poll also predicted BJP to bag 26-31 seats in West Bengal.
However, the election results 2024 show the BJP winning only 12 seats in the state, a discrepancy of a whopping 116 - 158%.
“A margin of error can be expected in the range of even 10-15% but a discrepancy of 116-158% is unfathomable. Moreover, it has been noticed that such glaring discrepancy between predictions and results was seen not only in West Bengal but also in several other states,” Gokhale’s letter to Sebi said.
Driven by these exit poll predictions, the Indian stock market saw a sharp rally on Monday, 3rd June, as the Sensex and Nifty 50 both soared over 3% each. Subsequently, on the next day i.e. election results day on June 4, the stock markets witnessed a massive crash and the Sensex and Nifty 50 tanked nearly 6% each.
“A spike of almost 3.5% on Monday after exit polls followed just the next day with a crash of about 5.8% after announcement of election results is unnatural and is an indication of how inflated and off-the-mark the exit polls were. Again, of specific concern here is the most popular & most watched India Today - Axis MyIndia exit poll which was found to have been completely incorrect and inflated in favor of the BJP-led NDA,” the Rajya Sabha MP’s letter read.
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Moreover, Gokhale also pointed out that the Axis MyIndia was hired by BHP to conduct election surveys for the party and alleged a clear conflict of interest on part of the agency to be working for the BJP while also participating in exit polls without a clear and unequivocal disclosure of a glaring conflict of interest.
Investors made massive profits on 03.06.2024 after the markets rose on the back of exit poll results. However, on 04.06.2024, investors have suffered losses of over ₹31 lakh crore, he said.
In the letter, Gohkhale requested Sebi to initiate an urgent enquiry focused on 3 crucial aspects, namely:
(a) Whether there was intentional inflation of exit poll numbers by India Today Axis Mylndia
(b) Whether the entities that booked profits on 3rd June are linked to the BJP, India Today, or Axis My India and
(c) Whether the same entities indulged in any short selling on 4th June when the stock markets crashed on announcement of election results.
Earlier, Srinivas BV, the National President of the Indian Youth Congress, also alleged a conspiracy behind the exit polls 2024. He shared a series of videos from interviews with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah during the Lok Sabha elections, in which they predicted a significant stock market rally on June 4.
Srinivas claimed that the exit polls were fabricated and suggested a vast conspiracy, calling for an investigation by the Sebi.
Veteran investor Basant Maheshwari echoed these concerns, alleging that Indian stock market investors were misled by the exit polls and questioned who should be held accountable.
