Mint Primer: Your two-minute guide to COP29... and dystopia

Nations, businesses and civil society are set to discuss ways to tackle the climate crisis at yet another Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, The 29th meet (COP29) is in Baku, Azerbaijan, on 11-14 November. Mint explains the agenda:

What are the agenda items?

The summit will discuss a climate finance deal for countries and communities to transition to clean energy and other low-carbon solutions. A massive $2.4 trillion a year—four times what is currently invested—is required for poor and emerging economies to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Countries will also present their updated climate action commitments, or nationally determined contributions (NDCs). These targets form the basis of global efforts to tackle climate change. Both climate finance and NDCs are critical to restricting global warming to 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

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What has been the progress so far?

As per the latest UN Emission Gaps Report, present national commitments are insufficient and put the planet on track for a rise of 2.6-2.8 degrees Celsius. And if nothing changes, the world is heading for a rise of 3.1 degrees, with catastrophic consequences for people and economies. In 2023, greenhouse gas emissions grew 1.3% year-on-year to 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent. To restrict temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius, emissions need to be cut by 42% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. To limit global warming to below 2 degrees emissions must fall 28% by 2030.

How can emissions be reduced?

Proven and cheap options like solar photovoltaic and wind energy can reduce emissions by 27% by 2030 and 38% by 2035. Reduced deforestation, more reforestation and better forest management can cut emissions 19% by 2030. But this will require higher investment in emerging economies, for which financial support is crucial.

Where does India stand globally?

In 2023, India spewed 8% of global emissions, the third largest behind China (30%) and the US (11%). But India contributed just 3% to CO2 emissions (1850-2022). In the past, India and other developing countries have asked rich nations to provide $1 trillion in climate finance. At COP29, India may lead emerging and developing economies to push for even higher flows. Though India has agreed to move away from fossil fuels, it is unlikely to accept any time-bound targets due to the energy needs of a rapidly growing economy.

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What happens if countries fail to act?

Alarmingly, 2024 is on course to becoming the hottest year on record. The world saw many climate disasters including heatwaves, hurricanes, droughts, wildfires and flooding in 2024, the latest being the floods in Spain. These are bound to intensify in a warmer world with the added risks of food shortage and disease. A study published in Nature Climate Change estimates a 10% loss to global GDP in a 3 degrees warmer world. By 2030, India may lose 5.8% of working hours due to heat, equivalent to 34 million jobs.