Gagandeep Singh feels he is on the edge, with no solutions in sight. A farmer from Sirsa, Haryana, Singh had planted cotton on 20 acres this summer. Because a portion of the planted seeds failed to germinate due to high temperatures, the yields turned out to be dismal—about a third of the normal.
“I spent close to ₹3 lakh just on pesticides to save the remaining cotton. But due to lower yields my losses are at least ₹7 lakh,” Singh said. Over the past few years, Singh has nearly halved the cotton planting area due to repeated pest attacks, adverse weather, and a steady decline in yields.
Singh’s woes epitomize something that is happening on a larger scale. India’s overall cotton production is estimated to fall to 29.9 million bales in 2024-25, the lowest in six years, due to lower plantings and stagnant yields. The latest production numbers are significantly lower than the record 39 million bales harvested by farmers a decade back, in 2013-14. One bale equals 170 kg.
With soaring losses from cotton, farmers in Singh’s neighbourhood have been replacing the fibre crop with rice, which needs at least five to six times more water to grow. This shift has led to higher groundwater extraction and worsening soil quality.
“After a few years, no crop may grow here. But farmers have no choice. They need an alternative due to repeated cotton crop failures,” Singh explained.
The steady decline in cotton production has hurt farm incomes, but it has been able to meet the domestic requirement of 30-31 million bales until now. However, the fall in output now threatens India’s textile exports. In 2023-24, cotton textile exports stood at $10.4 billion, including exports of garments, fabric, and yarn. In addition, India exported raw cotton worth $1.1 billion.
India has set a target of achieving $100 billion of textile exports by 2030. Currently about a third of the country’s exports come from cotton products, with the rest comprising man-made and other natural fibres, such as wool, silk and jute.
“Improving cotton yields is essential for India to maintain its competitive edge in exports. Better yields will also help cotton to counter the emergence of man-made fibres (MMF), a cheaper alternative with improved functional properties like breathability,” said Prabhu Damodaran, convenor of the Indian Texpreneurs Federation.
Damodaran added that focusing on cotton can be a gamechanger as it will continue to be the preferred material for consumers across all markets. Besides, every $1 billion of additional apparel exports can create at least 1,50,000 jobs, he said.
In 2022, India’s textile market size was estimated to be $165 billion, including exports. The market is expected to swell to $350 billion by 2030, implying there is demand for raw cotton and that it will rise from the current estimated demand of 31 million bales (in 2024-25). The textile industry employs 45 million workers directly; in addition, 6 million farmers grow cotton.
Two years back, a spike in international prices of raw cotton pushed the apparel industry to switch to MMF. In just 2-3 years, adoption of synthetic fibres increased from 10% to 30% of the raw material used, said Raja Shanmugan, an exporter from the textile hub of Tiruppur in Tamil Nadu. “Lower production of cotton in India is bound to impact the industry. We need a steady supply of good-quality cotton, and if farmers switch to other crops, manufacturers will have to depend on imports,” Shanmugan pointed out.
This year, India’s cotton production appears to be on shaky ground. India is projected to be a net cotton importer in 2024-25, for only the second time in two decades, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast in October. It added that falling global prices of cotton limits the competitiveness of exports from India.
Last year (2023-24), India exported 2.8 million bales of raw cotton, a significant drop from the 11.7 million bales exported in 2013-14. Every year, India usually imports 1.5 to 2 million bales of long staple raw cotton, which is not grown in the country, for use in the apparel industry.
Data from the USDA shows that despite India being the second largest producer globally after China, its cotton yields are among the lowest. Indian farmers produced an average of 443 kg per hectare, nearly half of the global average yield of 815 kg per hectare. Cotton yields in China and Brazil are 4-5 times that of India.
India witnessed remarkable growth in cotton production following the introduction of genetically modified (GM) Bt cotton technology in 2002, together with improved hybrids. Between 2000-01 and 2013-14, cotton production increased nearly three times, from 14 million bales to 39.8 million bales. This period also witnessed average yields improve from 404 kg/hectare to 565 kg/hectare.
However, compared to 2013-14, cotton yields have plunged by a staggering 24% in 2023-24 (429 kg/hectare). How did this happen?
The cotton sector is in a deep crisis due to multiple factors, which played out over the past decade, said Bhagirath Choudhary, founder director at the South Asia Biotechnology Centre, Jodhpur.
Bt cotton was developed by inserting genes from a common soil bacteria, Bacillus thuringiensis. These genes secrete proteins with insecticidal properties that kill both American and pink bollworm, which are common pests in cotton. However, over the years, pink bollworms have developed resistance to the Bt gene. This was accentuated by farmers not planting non-Bt cotton as a refuge crop for pests to feed on, which would have delayed the resistance to the Bt gene.
“The onset of new diseases like boll rot and tobacco streak virus and changes in rainfall patterns also took a toll on the crop. This resulted in farmers moving away from cotton to other crops like paddy and groundnut,” Choudhary said.
In 2024, India’s cotton area fell by 8.7% year-on-year to 11.3 million hectares. This is a decline of nearly 13% when compared to the previous five-year average planting area. However, lower production of domestic cotton does not imply higher prices.
Another important factor is that the available seed technology is about 18 years old. The first transgenic Bt cotton Bollgard-I was released in 2002 and a double-gene technology Bollgard-II was released in 2006. In 2015, the centre introduced the Cotton Seeds Price Control Order, under which seed prices and royalty payments to the technology developer, Mahyco Monsanto Biotech, were fixed by the government. In 2020, royalties were altogether abolished.
Cotton in India has been a victim of technology fatigue, said Ram Kaundinya, advisor to the Federation of Seed Industry of India (FSII). “In addition to pests developing resistance to the Bt gene, weed management is a major problem that can reduce yields by over 20%. The technology of herbicide-tolerant cotton was available but not approved,” Kaundinya said.
Weeds compete for nutrition with planted crops and if not cleared, lead to lower yields. Planting herbicide tolerant plants can help farmers remove weeds by chemical sprays and save on the cost of the hired labour required to clear weeds. In 2013, Mahyco had applied for approval of commercial cultivation of an herbicide-tolerant GM cotton. It withdrew the application in 2016 after a draft notification proposed compulsory licensing on patented seeds. Mahyco resubmitted the application in December 2021 and it is currently pending before the Genetic Engineering Appraisal Committee of the environment ministry.
While all the sectors of the economy have benefited from the adoption of new technologies, agriculture has suffered due to undue regulations, said Rajendra Barwale, chairman of Mahyco, which introduced the Bt cotton technology in India. “Restrictions on royalty and price control on seeds hurt research and development (R&D) investments in the seed sector. The government should encourage new technology development and leave the choice of adoption to farmers,” he added.
According to FSII’s Kaundinya, the seed industry was unable to invest in R&D of superior hybrids because the price control order squeezed their margins. Cotton is currently the only crop where seed prices are announced by the government every year.
“India needs to take several measures to improve cotton yields. Other than allowing herbicide-tolerant technology, it should promote adoption of high-density plantations with mechanized harvesting. Due to growing demand from the textile industry, India would require 45 million bales of cotton within the next five years. We have requested the government to announce a cotton mission that can help improve yields and produce better-quality cotton,” said Kaundinya.
India is the only major country growing hybrid cotton, while the rest of the world, including the largest grower China, uses open pollinated varieties together with high-density plantations. Since open pollinated varieties can be reused by farmers, private seed companies are reluctant to sell such seeds in India due to weak patent protection laws.
India is yet to approve herbicide-tolerant (HT) cotton but this has not prevented some farmers from growing it. Farmers in Maharashtra and some southern states regularly plant unapproved and illegal HT Bt cotton seeds sold by some companies from Gujarat. About 15% of India’s cotton area is planted with such seeds, as per a government enquiry in 2017. In 2021, industry body FSII said an estimated 7 million illegal HT cotton seed packets were sold to farmers. The legal seed market hovers around 40-45 million Bt cotton seed packets every year.
“By using herbicide-tolerant seeds I manage to save around ₹12,500 per acre in labour costs on removing weeds. Effective de-weeding is crucial to maintain yields,” said Vijay Niwal, a farmer from Maharashtra’s Yavatmal district. Niwal added that the seeds are smuggled from Mehsana and Sabarkantha in Gujarat. “Since farming is mostly rain-fed here, we cannot move to other crops like paddy. So, adopting HT cotton was the only option available to us. It’s time the government approves the HT technology in cotton,” he said.
Last year, a roundtable on India’s cotton sector by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research and the Trust for Advancement of Agricultural Sciences, a Delhi-based thinktank, flagged multiple areas of concern. About 65% of India’s cotton area, mainly in the central and southern zones, is rainfed and most of it has soils with low water storage capacity and poor fertility, leading to low productivity. It also noted that weed infestation is a grave problem in cotton fields and manual weeding is challenging due to high costs, prolonged wet spells, and non-availability of labour.
The roundtable made several recommendations to the government, including setting up a Cotton Development Board, launching a new technology mission and withdrawing the price control policy on cotton seed to encourage private investments.
“The Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change (the nodal ministry for approval of transgenic technology) is urged to announce the long pending decisions on the next-generation cotton insect and weed management GM events. In this regard, immediate adoption of HT Bt cotton is required to overcome the current losses by the farmers,” it said.
Farmers are justified in their demand for access to new technology but technology fatigue is not the sole reason for low yields, said Y.G. Prasad, director of the apex Central Institute of Cotton Research, Nagpur.
“Countries like China have achieved high yields because they grow cotton under irrigation with better crop management practices, which include mechanised planting, canopy management and precision farming,” said Prasad. “We are carrying out pilot projects matching plant genotypes (genetic makeup, which determines plant characteristics) with soil types and high-density planting to improve yields. We are hopeful these measures will help Indian farmers match global yields.”
