WASHINGTON—Despite months of painstaking effort, senior U.S. officials say they don’t expect Israel and Hamas to agree to a cease-fire and a hostage-release deal before the end of President Biden’s term.
The administration won’t stop its pursuit of an agreement, seeing it as the only way to end the war in Gaza and stop a rapidly escalating conflict between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah. The White House has previously said the warring parties have already agreed to “90 percent” of the deal’s text, so there is still hope for a breakthrough. But a number of top-level officials in the White House, State Department, and Pentagon argue the warring parties won’t agree to the current framework.
“No deal is imminent,” one of the U.S. officials said. “I’m not sure it ever gets done.”
Officials cited two main reasons for the pessimism. The ratio of Palestinian prisoners that Israel must release to bring Hamas-held hostages home was a major sticking point—even before the U.S.-designated terrorist group killed six hostages, including an American citizen. And the two-day attack on Hezbollah with explosive pagers and walkie-talkies—followed by Israeli airstrikes—has made the possibility of all-out war much more likely, complicating diplomacy with Hamas.
Another problem is that, according to Biden administration officials, Hamas makes demands and then refuses to say “yes” after the U.S. and Israel accept them. The intransigence has severely frustrated negotiators, who increasingly feel the militant group isn’t serious about finalizing an agreement. Critics have also accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of sabotaging the process, partly in an effort to appease the hard-right flank of his governing coalition.
As a result, the mood inside the administration and in the Middle East is as gloomy as it has been in months.
“There’s no chance now of it happening,” a Middle Eastern official added shortly after the operation against Hezbollah. “Everyone is in a wait-and-see mode until after the election. The outcome will determine what can happen in the next administration.”
Failure to reach a deal could harm Biden’s legacy, who after embracing Israel following Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack was slow to convince Netanyahu that he should prioritize the return of the roughly 250 hostages. It would also be a blow to the families waiting nearly a year to embrace their loved ones again, as well as the Palestinians in Gaza seeking relief from the war that has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians, according to the enclave’s Hamas-run health ministry.
National security adviser Jake Sullivan met Wednesday with the relatives of the remaining seven American hostages held in Gaza, telling them that securing their release was a top priority for the president. But a statement from the families said they “expressed frustration with the lack of tangible progress” to Sullivan, urging the administration to make a deal as soon as possible.
John Kirby, the National Security Council spokesman, told reporters Wednesday the prospects of a finalized deal were “daunting,” and though the administration signaled for months that a deal was near, said, “we aren’t any closer to that now than we were even a week ago.” Still, he reiterated that the administration would still work toward an elusive diplomatic breakthrough.
The stakes are higher now than they have been in weeks.
In a televised Thursday address, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called the deadly pagers attack “a declaration of war”—just as Israeli jet fighters broke the sound barrier above the Lebanese capital, Beirut—and said attacks against Israel would proceed until the war in Gaza was over. Meanwhile, Israel’s defense minister vowed to continue striking Hezbollah in Lebanon, aiming to stop the group’s missile-and-rocket attacks so 70,000 Israelis can return to their homes in the northern border region.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking Thursday in France after a visit to Egypt, cautioned all sides to show restraint and avoid actions that could make a deal “even more difficult.” CIA Director William Burns, one of the administration’s lead negotiators, has no immediate plans to return to the region.
The cease-fire remains the linchpin of the Biden administration’s strategy in the region, believing that it would calm tensions and pave the way to establish formal diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. On Thursday, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said the Kingdom wouldn’t recognize Israel without a Palestinian state.
Some U.S. officials emphasized that there were many months left to garner a breakthrough between Israel and Hamas, and a lot could change between now and Inauguration Day, when either Vice President Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump inherit a Middle East on fire. The U.S. is still in talks with mediators Egypt and Qatar about how to break the impasse —— or if it can be broken at all.
One of the officials said “it would be irresponsible” for the administration to give up seeking an agreement that brings at least temporary relief to the region. But the official also signaled frustration with the Israelis and Hamas.
“As we’ve said from the outset, it is going to require leadership and compromise,” the official said, “and we urge all sides to demonstrate it.”
Lara Seligman and Warren P. Strobel contributed to this article.
