A recent Harvard Youth Poll conducted by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at Harvard Kennedy School reveals that young Americans are largely leaning toward Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. The survey, which sampled 2,001 individuals aged 18 to 29 from October 3 to 14, shows Harris leading former President Donald Trump by a significant margin, with 60% of likely voters under 30 supporting her compared to 32% for Trump.
One striking revelation from the poll is the strong influence of peer behavior on voting decisions. When young people believe their friends will participate in the election, 79% are likely to vote themselves. In contrast, only 35% express the intent to vote when they anticipate lower peer turnout. This highlights the importance of social dynamics in mobilizing young voters.
While Harris maintains a solid lead among young registered voters nationally, with a 20-point advantage (53%-33%), the race tightens in crucial battleground states. In seven key states, including Arizona and Pennsylvania, her lead narrows to 9 points among registered voters (50%-41%).
The poll also indicates a widening gender gap among young voters. Harris's support among women has surged, leading to a 20-point gap between young men and women voters. She holds a 30-point lead among women, while her support among men has grown to a 10-point advantage.
Amidst the political landscape, young Americans express significant concerns regarding the potential for a peaceful transfer of power after the election. Only 20% of respondents are fully confident about a smooth transition, reflecting a broader anxiety about political stability.
The data also show a notable shift in voting preferences. Half of the likely voters intend to vote in person on Election Day, up from 37% in 2020, while the use of mail-in voting has decreased. Only 34% plan to vote absentee, a decline attributed to the waning of pandemic-related voting measures.
Overall, the Harvard Youth Poll underscores that the decision-making of young voters may hinge more on their social circles than on political ideology. As the election approaches, candidates will need to engage with this demographic to ensure turnout, leveraging the power of peer influence to galvanize support.
The poll was conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs and features a margin of error of +/- 2.64%. The data collection aimed to reflect a diverse representation of young Americans based on various demographic factors.
