Decoding Raj Thackeray enigma in 5 points ahead of Maharashtra Assembly elections 2024

The Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) led by Raj Thackeray has fielded candidates on 137 seats across Maharashtra, including 25 in Mumbai. The MNS has, however, not fielded candidates in 10 of Mumbai’s 36 assembly seats fuelling speculation of a strategic decision to allow Mahayuti candidates win these seats.

Last week, Raj Thackeray said he was confident that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government would return to power in Maharashtra in the Assembly elections on November 20. The MNS has not announced any alliance with the BJP, yet Thackeray is seemingly professing ideological allegiance to the saffron parrty this election.

Make-or-Break Elections

The Assembly polls 2024 are can either make or break Thackeray's political career for MNS is facing a decline in its electoral fortunes since 2009 when it won 13 assembly seats. The MNS vote share has since plummeted from 5.75 per cent to 2.25 per cent in 2019, when only one of its candidate won the assembly election.

The party did not field candidates in 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The upcoming election is also critical since Raj's son Amit Thackeray is making a debut from Mahim seat in Mumbai, hence a personal stake for the MNS chief.

The BJP is supporting Amit but his candidature has become a bone of contention between the MNS and chief minister Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena. The Shinde sena has fielded candidate Sada Sarvanakar from seat against Amit making it a complicated contest.

A Modi Critic, not so long ago

Raj Thackeray, 56, is the estranged cousin of Uddhav Thackeray, the former Chief Minister of Maharashtra. 

Nephew of the late Shiv Sena founder Bal Thackeray, Raj has a powerful family name. His connection to Shiv Sena’s legacy impacts how people perceive him, even though he formed his own party Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) in 2006.

Known for his oratory skills and anti-north India rhetoric, Raj has been inconsistent in his political stands, according to political analysts. He supported Narendra Modi, the then Prime Ministerial candidate in 2014. Five years later in 2019, however, he led a high-pitched campaign-‘Modi-mukt Bharat’- expressing disappointment over the ‘unkept’ promises of the first PM Modi-led government at the centre.

Raj even joined the Opposition chorus and questioned the PM over the2019 Pulwama attacks, and the Balakot strike.

Raj, known for his 'Marathi Manoos' plank championing Marathi pride, often uses strong rhetoric to address issues affecting Marathi people. This appeal to regional identity, at times, helps him stand out, especially among voters seeking local pride. 

Raj met Union Home Minister Amit Shah, along with his son Amit, ahead of 2024 general elections. But he didn't field candidates.

The Curious Fight for Mahim

Come November 20 polls, the BJP is openly supporting Raj's son from Mahim seat even if that means annoying the Shiv Sena (Shinde) camp in Mahayuti alliance.

The Sena candidate Sada Sarvanakar requested Raj to not field his son Amit from the Mahim seat. Both the candidates were in the fray until November 4, the last day of withdrawing nominations. A win for his son is key since it would mean continuing Raj's political legacy in the state.

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-led faction of Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar- led faction of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) are part of Maharashtra's ruling NDA bloc in Maharashtra. The alliance is contesting against the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance comprising the Shiv Sena (UBT), the NCP (Sharad Pawar) and the Congress party for November 20 elections.

‘Marathi Manoos’

Three years after coming to being, the MNS won 13 seats in the 2009 Assembly elections riding on the ‘Marathi Manoos’ plank. In 2014, it won two seats, and in 2019, a lone seat. Raj Thackeray’s has never won a constituency in a Lok Sabha election.

In the 2017 BMC polls, the MNS won seven corporator seats. Barring one, all its corporators later joined the Uddhav Sena.

In August, Raj Thackeray was questioned by Enforcement Directorate (ED) for eight hours in a money laundering investigation linked to the state-run Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS). Of late, however, Raj is seen alligning back towards the BJP while campaigning for the party in the Assembly polls and sharing the stage with PM Modi.

Raj Vs Uddhav Rivalry

A lot has changed in Maharashtra political dynamics in recent years. The five years of the outgoing assembly were marred by political turmoil. The state saw three different chief ministers – the Bhartiya Janata Party’s Devendra Fadavis, Shiv Sena’s (UBT) Uddhav Thackeray, and now Shiv Sena’s (SHS) Eknath Shinde.

Two major parties – the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) – saw splits leading to alliances in power and in the opposition. The 2024 assembly poll is the first election for the splintered factions of the Shiv Sena and the NCP.

The BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena contested the 2019 Lok Sabha election in an alliance and won 41 out of the state’s 48 seats.

As things stand, BJP is keeping all options open for assembly polls in Maharashtra. And as for Raj Thackeray, he has nothing to lose. Raj, is Uddhav's biggest critic. He is often seen accusing Uddhav of diluting the Shiv Sena’s original principles.

Both MNS and Shiv Sena (UBT) compete for a similar voter bases, especially among Marathi speakers. Now that Shiv Sena is a divided house and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde is being projected as the actual inheritor of Bal Thackeray’s legacy, political analysts say that an ‘unofficial’ collaboration with Raj could diminish Uddhav’s voter base further.

This can be crucial since the contest between Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi is percieved to be tight, so far. A post-poll alliance, if needed, with the Mahayuti cannot be ruled out.