Fadnavis, Pawars and Thackerays – 7 key players who could shape today’s Maharashtra assembly election outcome

Maharashtra Elections 2024: Voting is underway for 288 seats of Maharashtra Legislative Assembly in a single phase today, November 20. 

The votes will be counted on November 23. 

The contest  in Maharashtra is largely bipolar between the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is currently in alliance with Ajit Pawar-led NCP and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena under the ruling Mahayuti banner. The Shiv Sena (UBT), the NCP (Sharad Pawar) and the Congress are part of the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance.

The five years of the outgoing assembly were marred by political turmoil. The state saw three different chief ministers. Two major parties – the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) – saw splits leading to alliances in power and in the opposition.

The upcoming polls are the first assembly elections in the state after the two major parties split. Mint takes a look at 7 key faces to watch out in the election. These include Bhartiya Janata Party’s Devendra Fadavis, Shiv Sena’s (UBT) Uddhav Thackeray, and Shiv Sena Shinde faction chief (SHS)- Eknath Shinde.

Sharad Pawar – The Machiavelli of Maharashtra

At 84, Sharad Pawar is arguably the tallest political leader in Maharashtra. He is often referred to as Machiavelli of Maharashtra politics, for he can resort to any means to stay in power.

In 2019, Pawar was considered the architect behind Shiv Sena’s decision to break its decades-old alliance with the Bhartiya Janata Party and pave way for Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), with two ideologically diverse parties – the Shiv Sena and the Congress – on board. Uddhav Thackeray became the Chief Minister of Maharashtra, a stint that didn’t last long though.

The 2024 election is a prestige battle for Pawar, the former Chief Minister and Union Minister. This is because the MVA government was toppled in June 2022 after the Shiv Sena split. A year later, his nephew Ajit Pawar rebelled and split the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)—the party that Sharad Pawar founded. Ajit took away most of the party's MLAs and MPs, leaving his uncle and NCP founder in a difficult situation. Since then, Pawar has been trying hard to keep the MVA flock together.

The Lok Sabha Election 2024 was a morale booster for Pawar and MVA. The NCP (SP) won eight of the 10 seats it contested. Ajit Pawar’s faction could won only one. NCP is contesting 87 seats in November 20 assembly polls. MVA’s performance will depend on how NCP (SP) fights the election.

Devendra Fadnavis – The BJP's man in Maharashtra

Devendra Fadnavis, 54, the former Chief Minister of Maharashtra, is perhaps the most prominent BJP face in the state. The incumbent Deputy Chief Minister in the Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-led government enjoys the confidence of RSS and is favoured by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Yet he faces a litmus test in the upcoming elections, more so after a recent setback during the Lok Sabha elections in which the BJP won only 9 of the 28 seats it contested in Maharashtra. 

Many in the BJP blame Fadnavis for the party’s failure to get a majority in the 2019 Assembly polls. The results of the November 23 assembly elections will decide Fadnavis’ future. The number of seats the BJP wins in the 288-member house will determine the prospects of the ruling Mahayuti alliance.

Uddhav Thackeray - The key Thackeray

Uddhav Thackeray had just started emerging as a key political player in Maharashtra when Eknath Shinde, his fellow Shiv Sena leader, revolted, split the Shiv Sena, and topped the Uddhav-led MVA government in Maharashtra.

Like most MVA constituents, Uddhav made a comeback by winning nine seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

This assembly election could be a make-or-break election for Udhav as it will prove which of the two Shiv Sena factions takes forward the political legacy of his later father Bal Thackeray. The elections also have acritical sense in terms of former Chief Minister Uddhav’s stature in the MVAkingmaker in Maharashtra politics when he became the 20th chief minister of the state in June 2020. For many months after his swearing-in, many called.

Eknath Shinde – The Rebel who became the CM

Eknath Shinde emerged as a king maker in Maharashtra politics when he became the 20th chief minister of the state in June 2020. For many months after his swearing-in, many would call Shinde a puppet CM positioned by the BJP.

But as the November 20 election looms in Maharashtra, Shinde, 60 is one of the key players to be watched. He has smartly dispelled his ‘puppet’ image, as evident in his Shiv Sena factions Lok Sabha 2024 performance. The Shinde Sena, as many call his party, bagged 7 of the 15 seats it contested, strengthening its clout in the Mahayuti in Maharashtra. The Shinde Sena is contesting 80 seats in the assembly elections.

When he split the Shiv Sena, Shinde had the support of 40 MLAs. He will aspire to win more seats in the 288-member Maharashtra House. According to reports, his second stint as Chief Minister, in case of Mahayuti victory, will depend on how many seats he wins.

Ajit Pawar – the estranged nephew

The 2024 assembly election is the first since Ajit Pawar broke away from the party that his uncle Sharad Pawar founded. So, this election will be keenly watched as an indicator of Ajit’s political future. Also, the election assumes significance since Ajit’s NCP faction could win only one Lok Sabha seat in 2024. He had fielded four candidates. Ajit is the deputy chief minister in Shinde-led government in Maharashtra.

Ajit’s NCP faction is contesting 52 seats in the November 20 election. Ajit is contesting from his family turf Baramati. He has been winning the seat, which his uncle represented before him, since 1991. Ajit faces nephew Yugendra in Baramati,

Nana Patole - the Congress chief

Nana Patole, the Congress chief of Maharashtra cannot be ignored in the assembly elections. Not only has he been taking on the BJP ahead of the polls, but he has annoyed his MVA partners, too. In fact, at one point in time, the Shiv Sena (UBT) had decided not to take part in seat-sharing talks as long as Patole, 61, was there. The differences were resolved later, reportedly solved, after Sharad Pawar’s intervention.

Raj Thackeray – the Marathi Manoos

Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray has been anti-BJP since 2019. But now, he says he is confident that the Mahayuti alliance will retain Maharashtra. The 56-year-old can be a key player in the elections as he is fielding candidates for 165 seats, 25 of which are in Mumbai. The contest is also personal for Raj since his son Amit is making electoral debut this time.

MNS won 13 seats in 2009. But has seen decline in its electoral fortunes since then. MNS vote share plummeted from 5.75 per cent in 2009 to 2.25 per cent in 2019, when only one candidate won the election. What remains to be seen is how MNS performs now after professing ideological allegiance to the BJP this time.