Maharashtra Election Results 2024: Who will benefit from rise in voter turnout?

The voter turnout in the Maharashtra Assembly Election 2024 was the highest since 1995. According to the Election Commission, 65.11% turnout was recorded in Maharashtra as of 8 pm on Thursday.

This exceeded the polling percentage in the state in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls (61.33%) and the 2019 assembly elections (60.5%). This is also said to be the highest since the 1995 assembly election, when the turnout was 71.7%.

Maharashtra Election Result 2024: What could increased voter turnout mean?

While the Mahayuti claimed it was a sign of “pro-incumbency”, many others see it as a hint of possible "anti-incumbency." Many believe that an increase in voter turnout could mean anti-incumbency in a state – meaning people want a change of guard and, hence, are coming out in numbers to vote.

However, neither of these arguments (anti-incumbency or pro-incumbency) has been proven; they are mere speculation. Many reasons could impact a voter's decision to vote or not to vote – these may include personal arrangements, weather conditions, holidays/long weekends, urban apathy, and ease of voting.

But how the increase or decrease in voter turnout would impact the election outcome is still not known.

In 1995, when a high voter turnout (71%) was recorded in Maharashtra, the power had shifted from the Congress to the undivided Shiv Sena (Sena-BJP alliance). In 2009, when the turnout was recorded at just 59.5%, there was no change of government. But later in 2019 (turnout at 60.5%), no party was able to cross the majority mark.

The Mahayuti, which is currently ruling Maharashtra, is facing a tough battle against the MVA, which won the maximum number of seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. This has given the MVA hope of winning the state polls.

The Mahayuti's loss or the MVA's victory in the Lok Sabha polls, and the about-turn in the recently concluded Haryana Elections, may have also encouraged people to come out to choose their legislators.

What did Devendra Fadnavis say

Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister and BJP candidate from Nagpur South-West, Devendra Fadnavis said that the BJP always gains an advantage whenever there is an increase in voter turnout. Fadnavis is a leader of the Mahayuti.

"I feel that whenever the voting percentage increases, BJP is the only one to benefit from it. With the increased voting percentage, BJP-Mahayuti will benefit from this," Fadnavis told ANI on Wednesday.

When asked about the possible reasons behind the rise in the voter turnout, he said, "I feel the percentage of voting increased due to pro-incumbency and the feeling of affinity that voters have for the government."

Fadnavis' statement came after most exit polls predicted a clear win for the BJP-Shiv-NCP coalition's win in the 2024 Maharashtra Election. These included Axis My India, Matriz, Times Now-JVC and Peoples Pulse.

However, at least three exit polls predicted a hung Assembly, with no party/coalition getting the majority to form government. These were P-Marq, Dainik Bhaskar, and the Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra. One exit poll—Electoral Edge—predicted a landslide win for the Opposition MVA.