Will Yogi Adityanath’s ‘batenge toh katenge’ slogan help or harm BJP in Maharashtra elections?

Maharashtra Elections 2024: In the heated lead-up to the Maharashtra assembly elections, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's slogan, “batenge toh katenge” (divided we perish), has emerged as a significant talking point. This rallying cry, designed to consolidate the Hindu vote base, has resonated within Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) circles but created friction with key allies in the Mahayuti coalition, particularly the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) led by Ajit Pawar and the Eknath Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena.

Maharashtra will vote on November 20 to elect 288 representatives to the Assembly. The results of Maharashtra assembly elections will be declared on November 23. 

Maharashtra Elections: BJP’s Vote Consolidation Strategy

The BJP’s strategic deployment of the slogan is aimed at countering caste-based voting patterns and preventing the fragmentation of Hindu votes, particularly in crucial regions such as Vidarbha. This region has become a major battleground, where the BJP is directly competing with the Congress on several seats.

According to several reports, senior BJP leaders believe that fostering a sense of Hindu unity can help safeguard against vote division, which proved costly in past Lok Sabha elections.

Maharashtra Elections: Discomfort Among BJP's Mahayuti Allies

The adoption of the 'slogan has not been universally welcomed within the BJP's Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra.

Maharashtra deputy chief minister and NCP leader Ajit Pawar expressed his unease, stating: “I am not supporting it. I have said this several times. It will not work in Maharashtra. This may work in Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, or some other places.” Pawar’s approach reflects his party's inclusive stance, highlighted by its decision to field the largest number of minority candidates in the state.

For Chief Minister Eknath Shinde faction of Shiv Sena, the slogan threatens to undo months of efforts aimed at softening the party’s image and appealing to a broader voter base, including Muslims.

CM Shinde’s strategists worry that such rhetoric could consolidate minority votes behind Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), which has already benefited from strong support in urban areas like Mumbai.

Maharashtra Elections: Complex Dynamics of Muslim and Maratha Votes

Eknath Shinde's apprehensions are grounded in data analysis from the recent Lok Sabha elections. In Mumbai South, for example, Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Arvind Sawant secured a victory margin of 52,000 votes, 46,000 of which came from the Byculla Assembly seat, a stronghold with a significant Muslim population. This kind of concentrated support poses challenges for the Mahayuti alliance if the BJP’s hardline stance further pushes minority communities towards the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

Maratha leaders, including activist Manoj Jarange Patil, have also been critical of the BJP’s ‘Hindu Unity’ rhetoric. Patil, who has championed the cause of Maratha reservations, stated: “If you claim Hindus are in danger, then what about Marathas? Can’t you see their children’s troubles? If you say Hindus are in trouble, then it is also your responsibility to ensure the welfare of Marathas.” He highlighted a perception that Marathas, the ‘largest Hindu caste’, are being used by the BJP only to target Muslims.

Maharashtra Elections: Yogi Adityanath Plays The Messenger of Hardcore Hindutva?

Political analysts, including Amitabh Tiwari, suggest that Yogi Adityanath’s presence in the campaign is strategic. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeals to the broader electorate, Yogi Adityanath’s hardline image is intended to energise the BJP’s core Hindutva base. Tiwari notes: “Modi and Yogi’s pairing feels like the Advani-Vajpayee partnership. Yogi represents hardcore Hindutva, while Modi represents the polished version, the one who can unite a wider audience.”

“One is safe – that’s the key to their strategy. The message is inclusive, calling everyone together, and it has helped the BJP remain united. The floating voters and the middle class are now brought in with Modi's leadership, but the hardcore Hindutva base is rallied through Yogi's leadership,” Tiwari noted.

This approach, however, has limitations. Tiwari explains that while the slogan may strengthen the BJP’s core base, it is unlikely to attract new voters, such as OBCs, Dalits, and other marginalised communities who have not traditionally supported the party.

Hyper-Local Issues and the Challenge of Broader Appeal

Despite the BJP’s efforts to project a cohesive Hindu identity, the reality on the ground in Maharashtra is more complex. Elections are being contested on hyper-local issues rather than overarching communal themes.

The MVA, for instance, has focused on slogans like “Samvidhan Bacha” to appeal to a diverse electorate. As Tiwari notes, “Slogans like ‘Batenge to katenge’ will only resonate in areas where there is a significant Muslim population. In the rest of the state, these issues don’t matter.”

The Role of Dalit Leaders and Vote Division

The political landscape in Maharashtra also features influential Dalit figures such as Prakash Ambedkar, who some analysts believe are contributing to the fragmentation of the Dalit vote. This division could weaken the MVA’s position. There is a perception among some Dalit communities that Ambedkar’s leadership prevents a unified vote that could otherwise support the Congress-led alliance.

Tiwari points out: “This division of the Dalit vote could be detrimental to the MVA. Ambedkar’s actions have been instrumental in creating a perception that Congress is anti-reservation.”

"Assembly elections compared to the Lok Sabha, the lead for MVA in Maharashtra was just 8 seats, despite the narrative of a "one-sided" election. This narrow lead mainly came from regions like Vidarbha and Marathwada," he adds.