The Axis My India exit poll for the 2024 Maharashtra assembly elections, which was released on Thursday, a day after most exit polls predicted a big win for the Mahayuti alliance, showed that the ruling bloc, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena (Shinde), and NCP (Ajit Pawar), would clinch victory with 178 to 200 seats. Meanwhile, the opposition MVA alliance, which includes the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (Sharad Pawar), is projected to secure between 82 and 102 seats.
The exit poll, which covers all 288 constituencies, provides insight into the competitive landscape ahead of the final results.
The Mahayuti alliance, which includes the BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction), and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction), is projected to win between 178 and 200 seats, securing 48 per cent of the vote share.
BJP: 98 to 107 seats
Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction): 53 to 58 seats
NCP (Ajit Pawar faction): 25 to 30 seats
JSS/RSVA/RYSP: 2 to 5 seats
Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA): Projected seats and vote share
The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), an alliance led by the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), is projected to secure between 82 and 102 seats, with a 37 per cent vote share.
Congress: 28 to 36 seats
Shiv Sena (UBT): 26 to 32 seats
NCP (Sharad Pawar faction): 26 to 30 seats
SP/PWPI: 2 to 4 seats
Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and Others: Projected shares
The Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) is projected to secure 0 seats with a 3 per cent vote share.
The Others category, which includes parties and independents, is expected to win 6 to 12 seats, with a 12 per cent vote share.
This category comprises parties like BSP, MNS, AIMIM, and others.
The following parties contested various numbers of seats across the state:
BJP: 149 seats
Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction): 81 seats
NCP (Ajit Pawar faction): 59 seats
Congress: 101 seats
Shiv Sena (UBT): 95 seats
NCP (Sharad Pawar faction): 86 seats
VBA: 200 seats
BSP: 237 seats
MNS: 125 seats
AIMIM: 17 seats
The Axis My India exit poll results come with a margin of error of +2 per cent, meaning the final outcome could vary slightly from the projected results.
As Maharashtra awaits the official election results on November 23, the Axis My India exit poll provides a snapshot of the likely political scenario, with Mahayuti expected to lead, followed by MVA. However, the final outcome will depend on voter turnout and any last-minute shifts in support.
This was the first assembly poll in Maharashtra after the split in the Shiv Sena and the NCP. The majority mark in the 288-member state assembly is 145.
