Poll of Polls: Almost all the exit polls have predicted a clean sweep for ruling Mahayuti in Maharashtra. The exit polls, however predicted neck-and-neck fight between the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Jharkhand and JMM-led INDIA bloc on Jharkhand.
The 288 seats of Maharashtra voted in single phase on Wednesday, November 20. The 81 seats of Jharkhand voted in two phases – November 13 and November 20.
Exit polls have often been proven wrong. The actual results of both the state elections will, however, be known on November 23 when the counting of votes will take place.
Four out of seven exit polls have predicted a return of Bharatiya Janata Party-led ‘Mahayuti’ alliance in Maharashtra Assembly elections 2024.
The contest in Maharashtra in the 2024 assembly elections was largely bipolar. The BJP, in alliance with Ajit Pawar-led NCP and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena under the ruling Mahayuti banner, contested against the opposition MVA alliance, comprising the Shiv Sena (UBT), the NCP (Sharad Pawar) and the Congress party.
The majority mark in the 288-member Maharashtra assembly is 145.
The ABP News-Matrize has predicted that the ruling Mahayuti alliance will win 150-170 seats, while the MVA gets 110-130 seats in Maharashtra.
TheP-Marq, another exit poll, predicts Mahayuti getting majority with 137-158 seats. The MVA may bag 126-146 seats according to this pollster. People's Pulse has predicted 182 seats for Mahayuti and 97 for the MVA .
The Times Now-JVC exit poll gave 150-167 seats to Mahayuti and 107-125 seats to MVA.
Lokshahi - Rudra exit poll has predicted a close contest between the two alliances in Maharashtra. The exit poll has predicted 128-142 seats for the Mahayuti and 119-140 seats for MVA. Electoral Edge has given edge to the MVA.
So based on these exit polls, the Mahayuti is predicted to win anywhere between 128 - 182 seats while the MVA is likely to win 97-146 seats in Mahaashtra.
Exit Polls are predictions based on voter feedback gathered by survey agencies after the polling. The larger idea behind the exit polls is to reflect public sentiment well before the results are announced.
Exit poll accuracy has been scrutinized in the past. Almost all the exit polls got the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 results wrong.
Also, in recent Haryana Assembly Elections, the exit polls had predicted a victory for the Congress party in total contrast with actual results with actual results which saw the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) coming back to power in the state.
In 2019 assembly elections, the exit poll predictions for both Maharashtra and Jharkhand were accurate. The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won Maharashtra and the JMM-Congres-RJD alliance won Jharkhand in 2019.
Three exit poll results gave an edge to the NDA over the ruling INDIA bloc in Jharkhand. One exit poll gave a sweep for INDIA bloc while others predicted a tight contest between the BJP -led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Opposition INDIA bloc in the state.
In the 81-member Jharkhand assembly, a political party or an alliance needs to win at least 41 seats to form government. Jharkhand is currently ruled by the INDIA bloc – the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).
The ruling alliance contested the elections againts the NDA comprising the BJP, All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)), and the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas)
The Times Now-JVC exit pollpredicted 40-44 seats for the BJP and its allies, and 30-40 seats for the INDIA bloc partners. TheABP- Matrizepredicted 42-47 seats for the NDA and 25-30 seats for the INDIA bloc. Poeple's Pulse has given 42-48 seats to the NDA and 16-23 seats to INDIA bloc.
The P Marq exit poll has predicted 31-40 seats for the NDA and 37 -47 seats for the INDIA bloc. Dainik Bhaskar has given 37-40 seats to the NDA and 36-39 to INDIA bloc.
Pradeep Gupta's Axis My India has predicted a lead for the JMM-led INDIA bloc in the state winning 53 seats. The BJP-led NDA alliance is predicted to win 25 seats, according to the exit poll.
So based on seveb exit polls, the poll of polls predicts close fight in Jharkhand with the ruling INDIA bloc to bag anwhere between 16-59 seats and the NDA getting 27-48 seats.
