5 reasons why Maharashtra Election saw an unprecedented clash between Mahayuti and MVA

Maharashtra Elections Results 2024: The Election Commission of India will start counting votes of Maharashtra Election today, November 23. The election for the 288 seats was held on November 20.

The battle for Maharashtra is bipolar between the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is in alliance with Ajit Pawar-led NCP and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena under the ruling Mahayuti banner. 

The Shiv Sena (UBT), the NCP (Sharad Pawar) and the Congress are part of the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance.

There are complexities within these alliances on both sides. 

As the voting begins, the stakes have never been higher in Maharashtra. As key players vie for control in one of the wealthiest states in the country, today's election is more than just a battle for power. While it is a test of leadership legacies for many, it is also a battle for political survival for others. 

The Haryana Momentum

Today's election assumes significance for a host of reasons. It will be the first assembly poll held after Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir elections. The BJP retained Haryana, while the National Conference-Congress alliance bagged Jammu and Kashmir. The results of both elections were announced last month.

In the Lok Sabha Elections 2024, the BJP lost ground in Haryana as well as in Maharashtra. The BJP won only five of 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana. The BJP had won all 10 Lok Sabha seats of Haryana in 2019 general elections. 

In Maharashtra, the BJP won just nine of the 28 seats it contested in 2024, as against 23 of the 25 seats it contested in the 2019 general elections.

But the BJP made a strong comeback in Haryana, the first assembly election after the general elections. The saffron party won 48 of the 90 seats in Haryana, defying all exit polls. The Congress bagged 37 seats. 

Clearly, the results in Maharashtra will test the BJP's momentum post the Haryana win. The elections in Maharashtra will also be another test for the INDIA bloc since major players in the opposition alliance are in the fray here.

BJP Expanding Influence

According to political analysts, the BJP's fight in Maharashtra is not directly with the Congress as much as it is with regional players. For quite some time now, the saffron party has been keen to consolidate its position in Maharashtra, where it has faced challenges from regional players.

The upcoming election will test the BJP's ability to stay in power with the help of regional parties – the Shiv Sena and NCP factions, in this case. A victory in Maharashtra would certainly bolster the BJP’s reach beyond its traditional strongholds in the north.

Factionalism

The five years of the outgoing assembly in Maharashtra were marred by political turmoil. The state had three different chief ministers and two major parties – the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) – split, leading to shifting alliances in the ruling camp and the opposition.

The upcoming polls are the first assembly elections in the state after the two major parties split. The outcomes will reveal which faction holds sway over the popular base.

Thus, the Maharashtra assembly election is not just about forming the government, but a larger issue of redemption and supremacy within the factions is also at stake.

Who is more popular?

The outcome on November 23 will also indicate the influence of local leaders in the state. For example, the election is also a prestige battle for Sharad Pawar, the 84-year-old war horse from the state.

The election will decide the future of leaders like Uddhav Thackeray, the former chief minister, who has the burden of carrying forward his father Bal Thackeray's legacy after Eknath Shinde, his fellow Shiv Sena leader, revolted, split the Shiv Sena, and topped the Uddhav-led MVA government in Maharashtra in 2022.

The election is also being keenly watched, for it will also decide what lies ahead for leaders Eknath Shinde, Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar. Their ability to rally their supporters could be a decisive factor in the fragmented political landscape of Maharashtra.

Economy and other issues

Maharashtra, being one of India’s wealthiest states, is faced with unique economic challenges, including agrarian distress and unemployment, analysts said. The outcome will also depend on these factors, they said.

Among other issues, a demand for Maratha reservation in government jobs and education has been a major issue in the run to polls. The Maratha community constitutes about 28 per cent of the state’s population and plays a crucial role in deciding the outcome.