Mint Primer: What Joe Biden’s exit from US presidential race means for Kamala Harris, Donald Trump

US President Joe Biden on Sunday withdrew from the 2024 presidential race. This paves the way for the Democratic Party to pick a nominee at its convention next month. Mint examines the implications of Biden’s decision:

Why did Biden withdraw from the US presidential race?

Pressure was mounting on Biden to step down since 27 June when he and the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump appeared in a TV debate. Biden’s faltering performance sparked a furious debate over his mental acuity. Recent news reports suggested that former president Barack Obama, an influential voice in the Democratic Party, was among those involved in discussions to get Biden to withdraw. Another colleague, former US House speaker Nancy Pelosi, too, had been trying to persuade Biden to step back from the presidential race. The worry was that Biden's staying on could cost the Democrats not only the White House but also the chance to control either chamber of Congress. Biden’s announcement recalled another by President Lyndon B. Johnson in March 1968 who also declined a second term. Biden has said he would remain president and commander-in-chief until his term ends in January 2025. He is to address the nation this week.

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What happens next?

Soon after Biden announced his exit from the race for the White House, he endorsed his vice president Kamala Harris to stand against former US President Trump. Biden’s decision to back his vice president gives Harris a clear edge to replace Biden as the Democratic Party nominee for the November polls. Harris, 59, said she was "honoured" to be endorsed, adding she would "earn and win this nomination" and unite the country against Trump. "We have 107 days until election day," she said. "Together, we will fight. And together, we will win." While Harris has been picking up endorsements from many key figures in the Democratic Party, she is yet to be officially nominated. This may not happen until the Democratic National Convention in August.

What was Trump’s reaction?

Trump, officially named the Republican Party nominee last week, told CNN on Sunday that "Harris will be easier to beat than Joe Biden would have been". Trump's campaign aides have said they plan to identify Harris as closely as possible to Biden's immigration policy, which Republicans blamed for millions crossing into the US from Mexico illegally. The economy will be another line of attack, with public sentiment unhappy with high food and fuel costs, besides interest rates making buying a home less affordable.

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What is next for Harris?

In the primaries, Biden had won the support of a vast majority of delegates—almost 3,900, with only around 30 staying uncommitted or backing other contenders who didn't stand a chance. Harris will have to win their support as these delegates are now free to vote for whomever they want in what is called an open convention. Harris, 59, a Black and Asian-American will fashion an entirely new dynamic with Trump, 78, offering a vivid generational and cultural contrast. The US has yet to elect a woman president in its 248-year history. It is also possible that the Democrats pick another candidate ahead of the convention in Chicago from August 19-22.

What happens to Trump’s campaign?

Trump’s chances of securing a win in the November polls had increased after he narrowly survived an assassination attempt earlier this month. With Biden dropping out of the race, some analysts say Democrats have a fresh opportunity to turn the tide. Hence Trump will have to re-work his strategy. Harris would be a more effective messenger on abortion and could counter some of the anger over Biden’s Israel-Gaza policies that bedeviled his candidacy. If nominated, Harris could choose a running mate from a swing state, such as Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona or Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. Whichever way one looks at it, Trump is confronted with a new electoral landscape that has halted a period of steady political gains for him.

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Elizabeth Roche is associate professor at Jindal Global University, Haryana.