Prashant Kishor is yet to announce his political party but has declared that the new entrant in Bihar politics will contest all 243 seats in the Nitish Kumar-ruled state. He also exuded confidence that his party would win the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 with a full majority without forging any alliance.
But a few questions are being asked repeatedly: How will Prashant Kishor fit in a political arena where caste politics play a crucial role? And how will he fight "established leaders" like Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav with his new political party? And why is he confident of winning the state polls next year?
Bihar is among several states where caste politics dominates. However, Prashant Kishor's political messaging has been based on the well-being of people, education, employment and the plight of migrant workers. He has not been involved in caste politics so far, which makes many question if people will vote for him in the 2025 state polls.
Pawan Varma, a political analyst and former Rajya Sabha MP, told Mint, "While caste has been entrenched in Bihar politics, caste has been used to empower political leaders where the people become puppets of their ambitions..."
He explained the power of Kishor's "vote for change" message.
"In a way, his [Kishor] call is: irrespective of candidates' creed or caste...vote for what is good for you and what will change your life, and you will be surprised that in such a caste-entrenched state like Bihar...there's ability to succeed in giving this message..," Varma said.
Varma said crores are supporting Kishor and thousands are attending his rallies. He expects the 'Jan Suraaj' party, when formed, “not only to do well but win on its own strength, based on this ground-of-words approach and change of political messaging...”
In an interview with India Today in May this year, Prashant Kishor cited Prime Minister Narendra Modi as an example. He asked, "How many people are there from the caste which PM Modi belongs to?" He added that it is not PM Modi but his representatives who contest polls.
Similarly, "It is not like Prashant Kishor will fight on all the 243 seats in Bihar...I will also make people from Bihar's society fight the elections [which will have people from other communities]...," he said.
Varma said Kishor "has been living almost continuously in the villages of Bihar, working on bringing a transformational change in Bihar". He exuded confidence, "In 10 years, he will make Bihar among the best progressive states in India through transformational change."
Varma said Kishor's message simply tells that after 30 years of Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav, "Bihar is exactly where it was 30 years ago – at the very bottom of several indexes including poverty, disease, economic growth, health and development".
“So, Bihar needs change,” he said.
Prashant Kishor's message has been that people or political parties have been taking "your vote in the name of caste, religion and leaders' name to come to power but they have not fulfilled the promises of changing your life", Varma said.
"So his [Kishor's] message is about giving the power to change your life, like your choice where you vote not for these things [caste, religion] but yourself, your family, your children and their wellbeing," he said.
Varma, who has attended meetings organised by Prashant Kishor's organisation, said every decision within the organisation was made after a vote.
"Every issue was put to vote – should we form a party, should we wait till March next year to announce the party...who should be the president of the party, the term of president," Varma said.
He added that there are five distinct communities in Bihar – General, OBC, Dalits and Scheduled Tribes, Muslims, EBCs. "Based on their talent, which is there in these communities, we will have representation, both in the seat distribution, in cabinet," he said.
Varma said there would be an "operational presidency" in the ‘Jan Suraaj party’. "Each of these categories will have presidentship of one year...This is an entirely different lead...," he said.
Prashant Kishor launched a Jan Suraaj 'padayatra' two years ago, on October 2, 2022. Since then, he has visited thousands of villages in Bihar to understand issues faced by people on the ground level.
Varma said, "He [Kishor] has lived, walked and stayed with the people of Bihar. You should see the response to his simple message that you should vote for yourself, vote for your children..."
"Starting this yatra two years ago...from Champaran...since then... he has a grassroots connect which has been consolidated by an exceptionally well-laid organisational strategy, where he has consolidated party's position through the areas he has walked through...," Varma said.
Varma said, "...it is a totally brand new movement with one crore participants building Bihar politically anew."
He added that Kishor's "political acceptance in Bihar is very high". Describing one of Kishor's meetings he attended, Varma said it was held in the hall near Gandhi Maidan, which has a capacity of 10,000. "There were 12,000 to 13,000 people inside the hall and another 3,000-4,000 people outside," he explained.
"This has been followed by several more meetings attended in the same manner... there are five more such meetings leading up to the formation of the party on October 2 this year," Varma said.
"In other words, he has a hugely growing audience, speaking about Biharis changing the role, destiny and future by making the right choice for change..." Varma said.
In an interview with Republic Bharat, Kishor said, "Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav have not garnered even 25 per cent votes in the last 25-30 years. "Laluji had last won Bihar, on his own strength, in 1995...Nitish Kumar has never been able to contest elections on more than 140 seats...BJP is a large party that got 19.6 percent votes in the last assembly elections."
He said the politics in Bihar is "fragmented" and added that Nitish Kumar is at his last leg as a politician.
Prashant Kishor will launch his "Jan Suraaj" party on October 2 this year. He had said, "...Jan Suraaj will win in Bihar on its own in 2025 [without joining any alliance]...Jan Suraaj will contest 242 assembly seats and will come to power with a majority." He recently announced that women from his party will fight in at least 70-80 seats.
