Maharashtra poll: Whose populism will win the day?

Mumbai/Palghar/Uran: Ranshet, a small village in Maharashtra’s Palghar district, is 130 kilometres away from Mantralaya, the seat of power in the state. Paddy farmer Ladki Vitthal Korda, 52, belongs to Karbat pada, a tribal hamlet in Ranshet, and is a beneficiary of a flagship cash transfer scheme for women run by the state government.

Korda had a wide grin on her face as family members joked about how she shared a name with the scheme: Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana. Under this scheme, women belonging to families with an annual income of less than ₹2.5 lakh are entitled to financial assistance of ₹1,500 a month, which is transferred directly to their bank accounts.

So far, Korda has received ₹7,500 over two tranches. The timing was near perfect—a few months ago, her daughter-in-law gave birth to twins and the extra money came in handy for medical and childcare expenses.

“For the first time, I received money from the government directly in my account. It is good but not enough. Women should get skilled and should have employment opportunities in the village itself. Right now, there is none,” she said, while using a makeshift winnowing fan to separate grain from chaff outside her home.

With a budgetary allocation of ₹46,000 crore this year, Ladki Bahin Yojana is the centrepiece in a host of populist cash transfer and welfare schemes offered by chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Mahayuti government in its bid to return to power when the state goes to the polls on Wednesday. The Mahayuti comprises the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena (SS) and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

Launched just months before the election, it is similar to the Ladli Bahna Yojana in Madhya Pradesh, which helped the incumbent BJP win the state election last winter. But it is not the only scheme being offered in Maharashtra.

In the last few months, the ruling coalition has announced a series of other sops and schemes, including waiving of electricity costs for agriculture pumps up to 7.5 horsepower capacity, training and stipend for youth, free pilgrimages for senior citizens, and even a toll waiver on light vehicles at five entry points to Mumbai. Some estimates put the annual allocation for such schemes upwards of ₹96,000 crore.

Not to be outdone, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), too, has promised enhanced monthly financial aid for women, electricity for the poor, subsidized gas cylinders, as well as farm debt waivers in its manifesto. The MVA comprises the Congress, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and NCP Sharadchandra Pawar (NCP-SP).

Also read: Maharashtra Election 2024 could be a make-or-break moment for Mahayuti and MVA. Here’s why

Maharashtra is a politically crucial state, with the second highest number of parliamentary seats in the country. The assembly election in the state comes just months after the Lok Sabha polls, where the Congress-led MVA won more seats than the BJP-led Mahayuti. This is the first state election since Maharashtra’s two key regional parties—the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Shiv Sena (SS)—split.

Maharashtra is the biggest contributor to India’s GDP (gross domestic product). Historically, cutting across party lines, farm loan waivers and farm power bill waivers have been a recurring theme in the state’s political landscape. But experts say the scale of the populist pitch in this state election is breathtaking.

These populist schemes (and promises) come at a time when the state is steeped in massive debt and red flags have been raised by the finance department on the profligate spending on sops as well as infrastructure projects.

Voters in India’s second most populous state say inflation, unemployment and rural distress are key electoral issues and are divided over whether the competitive populism will influence their voting choices. Experts feel that while such populism will help mobilize voters, it does not necessarily guarantee a win.

Women voters

On a hot November afternoon, eight women in their late thirties sit and chat at a neighbour’s home in a densely populated slum in Mumbai’s Sakinaka locality. All except one are beneficiaries of the Ladki scheme. Three of them also received a household utensil set in the runup to the elections from the domestic workers welfare board. They all have varied views on the scheme.

Vandana Prakash Gaekwad, a domestic worker who first found out about the scheme from a YouTube reel, said she feels it will be stopped after the election. Manisha Gaekwad, a housewife, said that she would prefer to see the scheme stopped if in return the government reduces the cost of everyday items such as vegetables and groceries. And Samta Wahul said that “women are smarter than politicians think” and will keep several factors in mind while getting their fingers inked.

There are 4.66 crore women voters in Maharashtra (and 4.97 crore men). Of them, more than 2.34 crore women are already beneficiaries of the scheme. If it returns to power, the Mahayuti has pledged to increase the monthly assistance under the scheme to ₹2,100. Other women-specific schemes introduced in this summer’s state budget include pink e-rickshaws (under which 10,000 women in 17 cities will be financed to buy rickshaws), equipment for health sub-centres for breast and cervical cancer screening, a startup scheme for small entrepreneurs, and three free gas cylinders.

Most of the women voters Mint spoke to highlighted how rising inflation had made it difficult to run households and questioned why the ruling alliance waited till a few months before the election to announce the Ladki scheme.

Keshav Upadhye, the Maharashtra BJP’s chief spokesperson, said that it was unfair to link the scheme with elections because it has been five months since it was first announced. “This scheme has brought about a big change on the ground, especially in rural areas. Women feel self-reliant as they have been using this money to do something of their own,” he told Mint.

Also read: Maharashtra Election 2024: MVA seat-sharing talks hit stalemate? Uddhav Sena wants Congress chief Nana Patole out

In response to a question on concerns over the stress on the state’s finances, Upadhye said these schemes should not be viewed as a “financial burden” and said each state has its own financial situation within which such calls are taken.

An increase in women’s political participation in the last decade has meant that political parties, especially the Congress and BJP, have eyed their votes. In the past, gender-targeted schemes have helped parties win elections. Examples include prohibition for the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar, Mission Shakti for the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha, and subsidized gas cylinders under the Ujjawala Yojana for the BJP nationally.

Prithviraj Chavan, a former Maharashtra chief minister and chief of the Congress’ manifesto committee in the state, gave a spirited defence of the party’s proposed cash transfer scheme for women. “There is evidence in international economic theories on universal basic income about how direct cash transfers help women. We promised the same in Karnataka and Telangana and it has helped women a lot,” he told Mint.

“There can always be an argument over where the money is going to come from. But money must be found and must be spent where absolutely needed,” Chavan added.

Inflation, unemployment woes

Several low-income voters, especially informal workers, domestic workers, farmers and fisherfolk, spoke about the introduction of schemes such as Ladki in conjunction with rising inflation, rural distress, and lack of regular employment opportunities. A constant refrain was that the modest financial gain through these schemes is soon offset by high spending on everyday items and services.

Vishnu Laxman Vartha, a 62-year-old farmer from Vire village in Dahanu taluka near Palghar, said that farmers have borne the brunt of rising input costs. “We are not asking for free seeds or free electricity. We simply say: give us a good subsidy on fertilizers and ensure constant electricity supply,” he said.

Sitting on their home’s porch, his younger sister-in-law, Hiroo Chandrakant Vartha, 45, quipped that in remote villages like theirs, getting access to basic facilities and government schemes is a challenge. “This challenge gets compounded when everything from vegetables to vegetable oil is costly,” she added.

Several people from villages near Palghar (including Vire and Ranshet) and near Uran (Hanuman Koliwada (Sheva) and Gavhan Koliwada) told Mint that young men prefer migrating to Mumbai and Navi Mumbai in search of work.

However, concerns over inflation and lack of regular employment resonated in urban areas as well. Ram Kishan Khillare, a 42-year-old construction worker in Navi Mumbai’s Belapur, migrated from his hometown Hingoli decades ago. Every morning, he along with hundreds of others stands at a labour chowk to find work. In a good month, he said, there are 12-14 days of work, at a daily wage of ₹600.

“We have got a one-time safety kit and a household utensil kit from our board. It helps, but it is not critical to our jobs. We need more jobs, regularisation of work and effective medical assistance,” Khillare added.

A survey by MIT-SOG-CSDS-Lokniti (MIT School of Government and Centre for the Study of Developing Societies) published in The Hindu newspaper last month showed that 24% of voters in the state identified unemployment as their primary issue, while 22% cited inflation.

To address unemployment, the state government has launched a Ladka Bhau Yojana under which 10 lakh youths will be trained annually with a monthly stipend of up to ₹10,000. The annual expenditure on this scheme is ₹10,000 crore. The MVA, too, has promised a ₹4,000 monthly allowance to educated youths if it gets voted to power.

Neeraj Hatekar, an economist from Maharashtra, said that unlike loan waivers, direct cash transfer schemes require regular committed expenditure by governments. The MVA has promised a farm loan waiver of up to ₹3 lakh in its manifesto, while the Mahayuti has pledged to increase existing financial assistance to farmers.

Also read: Will Haryana shocker impact Maharashtra elections? Should AAP & Congress unite to win Delhi? 3 key questions answered

“The kind of debt profile that we are in, it all comes down to where the resources are being used. And right now, rural infrastructure should be the priority,” he said, adding that the state has not been able to provide effective basic services such as health and education.

News reports peg Maharashtra’s total debt burden at ₹7.11 trillion while its fiscal deficit has crossed the ₹2 trillion mark. Last month, deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar, who also holds the finance portfolio, justified overruling concerns raised by the state's finance department.

According to Hatekar, such schemes amount to “official buying of votes” and could only offer marginal political returns as other factors, such as caste, religion, local candidates etc, could override populism.

Electoral stakes

Along with Maharashtra, the Jharkhand assembly election is also being held this month. In that state, too, both the ruling coalition led by the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), and the opposition BJP are banking on a slew of populist promises to win. Counting will take place on 23 November in both states. The stakes are high for both the national parties as well as regional players in the two polls.

Sanjay Kumar, political analyst and co-director of Lokniti, a research institute, said that political parties are ‘mistaken’ if they believe that they can win elections only on populist schemes.

“Populist schemes and promises help political parties mobilize voters but they cannot ensure a victory. At the same time, they do no harm either,” said Kumar. “So, it comes down to what is the degree of benefit. I think the benefit is far less compared to what we or political parties generally tend to believe.”

He added that surveys show there is usually a tilt among beneficiaries in favour of ruling parties. “But that does not mean, all of them will vote for incumbents; some also vote for the opposition. Non-beneficiaries voting for incumbents is also sizable,” he added.

In Mumbai, voters are divided over the impact of such policies on their lives and on the election outcome. Anita Navnath Mane, a beneficiary who is a sweeper with the municipal corporation, feels that the Mahayuti government deserves her vote because of the steps they have taken for women. “I am a single mother and the money under Ladki Bahin scheme came just when my daughter fell ill. I could use the money for medical expenses,” she said.

But Sunil Bendre, a 43-year-old auto driver from Bhandup, whose wife is a Ladki beneficiary, said that everyday life for his family in the metropolis is difficult because of how costly things are. “You tell me: ₹1,500 a month comes down to ₹50 a day. What do you get in Mumbai for that amount? Maybe four vada pavs from a cart. That is not even food for one day, for one person,” he said.

Anuja, an independent journalist based in Delhi, writes on politics and policy