Voting for more than half of 543 Lok Sabha seats will be over with the conclusion of the third phase of polling by the evening of May 7, Tuesday. The remaining four phases are scheduled to be held on May 13, May 20, May 25 and June 1.
The results of the seven-phase Lok Sabha Elections 2024 will be declared on June 4.
Renowned pollster and Managing Director of consumer data intelligence firm, Axis My India, Pradeep Gupta believes that the elections, so far, have proceeded as anticipated.
In an interview with LiveMint, Gupta talks about the election campaign, the Modi factor, Rahul Gandhi, voter turnout and how the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies can achieve the 400 seats target in Lok Sabha Elections 2024. Excerpts from the interview:
This election is no different. The incumbent, the National Democratic Alliance government, will discuss claims and how they changed people’s lives. The challengers (INDIA bloc) has no option but to make promises. And based on these two things, people vote.
Over 90 percent of the time, people evaluate the incumbents based on their track record, as has been the case in the phases so far. The first two phases of polling mostly covered Southern India – Tamil Nadu, Kerala Karnataka. Some smaller states, north eastern states have also been covered.
In the third phase, 25 seats of Gujarat, 10 seats of UP, 14 seats of Karnataka, and some seats in Maharashtra and Hyderabad region will vote. In all these seats, the political parties have kept in mind a particular caste group and demography during the campaign.
It is very difficult to gauge the outcome based on these phases. But yes, it is, by and large, on expected lines.
The BJP, we know has a solid machinery and puts all its efforts in electioneering. The political campaign depends on demography. That is what we saw in the campaign so far. Both sides (NDA and INDIA bloc) have to design their strategy based on the states going to polls. All the talk about what the previous governments did for a particular community was targeted at Karnataka since the state went to polls in the second and third phases.
Let me tell you, voter turnout has nothing to do with politicians' speeches or parties’ campaign. The voter turnout is low due to factors like weather, summer vacation and the nature of the constituency. Metro cities, which went to polls in the second phase, saw voter turnout due to voter apathy.
Firstly, in a 40-minute long speech, on an average, by a political leader, five minutes are about sensitive issues.
During the assembly elections to five states, we saw caste was an issue raised by the Opposition. Obviously, the BJP will bring a counter. This has been a trend in past elections too. The narrative during first phases is on particular issues. And as we move towards the subsequent phases, the larger issues are talked bout.
Unless there is a tangible change in people's lives by any promise, it won’t change voting preference. I always say, out of 100 votes polled, at least 80 votes are based on which government’s will affect their livelihood. Other issues that will not have any tangible impact on people’s livelihood will not have a bearing on voter preference.
People still vote on basic issues, roads, education, health, PDS, farmer issues. The other issues will be inflation and unemployment. These issues are global and have been there forever. People vote for parties and individuals they feel more suitable to resolve these issues.
The incumbent government is led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Prime Minister has been winning elections consistently since his Gujarat days and delivering. This is true for other leaders too, when it comes to delivery. Take for example, Naveen Patnaik, he has breached two Modi waves.
The opposition INDIA bloc is an amalgamation of regional satraps- Stalin, Akhilesh Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, Tejashwi Yadav. These are popular leaders with appeal limited to their states. One party in the INDIA bloc with a pan-India appeal is Congress. But the party’s leader Rahul Gandhi, has never been on a post in the government, not even a minister. So people cannot judge him on delivery.
Each state has a different party and a different leader. You cannot look at Tamil Nadu like you look at UP. That is, precisely, different states show different results.
This question can be answered by looking at the 2024 elections based on the results of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In the 2019 elections, the BJP won 303 seats while National Democratic Alliance bagged 353 seats. So, NDA needs 47 more seats than 2019 to achieve its 400-seat target.
There are three groups based on 2019 Lok Sabha election results. There are 10-12 states and UTs with 257 seats in which BJP+ won 238 seats and opposition won 19 seats in 2019. This means 94 per cent strike rate for BJP+. These seats are in Bihar, MP, Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Goa. So. I believe, based on 2019 results, the BJP has to improve only on 19 seats.
Then there is another group of 5 states with about 100 seats. The opposition had won 96 per cent of these states – Tamil Nadu (+ Puducherry), Kerala, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, and Kashmir (3 seats).
