Haryana News: BJP says it’ll sail through crisis after MLAs defect— explaining Nayab Saini govt’s confidence in 5 points

Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) president and former deputy chief minister Dushyant Chautala on May 9 wrote to Haryana Governor Bandaru Dattatreya seeking a floor test in the Assembly. Chautala’s letter came a day after he said he would back the Opposition Congress against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in Haryana.  

The development assumes significance amid a crisis of sorts that the Chief Minister Nayab Saini-led government is facing in Haryana after three independent lawmakers – Dharampal Gondher, Randhir Golan and Sombir Sangwan – withdrew support to the BJP government and instead decided to support the Congress. 

All this is happening days ahead of the Lok Sabha polls to the 10 Haryana seats on May 25 and the state assembly elections scheduled to be held later this year. 

Govt is intact, says BJP

The BJP, however, insists that the Nayab Saini-led Haryana government is safe. The ruling party said that even if the need arises, other MLAs will support its government to help it sail through.

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“There is no threat to our government. It will continue to serve the people. We shall win an absolute majority in the next Assembly elections, so that such a situation never arises again,” former Haryana chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar told reporters on May 8.

The crisis of March

What explains the BJP’s confidence, though? In March this year, the Opposition Congress led by former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda moved a no-confidence motion against the Saini government. Saini won the motion.

At that time, the BJP had 41 MLAs in the 90-member Haryana assembly, after 10 MLAs of its ally, Dushyant Chautala-led JJP, decided to part ways. As many as six independent MLAs and one MLA of the Haryana Lokhit Party (HLP) backed the BJP government. 

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The Congress party had 30 MLAs, the INLD one, while one independent MLA had abstained from voting. Since none of the JJP MLAs voted, the BJP could easily win the floor test.

Confidence motion unlikely

Two no-confidence motions cannot be moved within six months, as per the rules. Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda has said that the motion could not be moved at this point, though he insisted that the chief minister should resign since the BJP government is in the minority now, according to a report in the Indian Express.

As things stand in the Haryana Assembly, the present strength of the house is 88 since two MLAs – former CM Manohar Lal Khattar and Ranjit Singh – have resigned. Khattar is the BJP candidate from the Karnal Lok Sabha seat, while Singh is contesting from Hisar in the upcoming general elections.

The numbers 

In the 88-member house, the BJP needs 45 MLAs for its government to stay. For now, it has 40 MLAs. The saffron party has the support of two independent MLAs and the lone HLP MLA, taking its tally to 43. With the claimed support of three of the JJP’s 10 MLAs, the BJP’s numbers go up to 46, one more than the magic number required in the Haryana assembly. 

Also Read: Haryana crisis: Can Congress overthrow BJP govt as 3 independents switch sides?

These three JJP MLAs have already been served notice for ‘anti-party’ activities by the JJP. In case of disqualification from the House, the total strength will come down to 85 and so will the magic majority number to 43, a number that the BJP has. 

Both parties have claimed they are in touch with many MLAs who can swing the figures either way.

Congress game plan 

For the Opposition to stake a claim, it needs to seek an appointment with the Governor of the state. Ideally, the Congress, the largest Opposition party in Haryana, should do it. But for now, the JJP has written to the Governor seeking a floor test. Leader of Opposition in Haryana Assembly had said on May 8 that even Dushyant Chautala could also do it. Now that he has done it, will the Congress follow suit? Remains to be seen.

Also Read: Haryana political crisis: ‘BJP will win all ten Lok Sabha seats,’ says former CM Manohar Lal Khattar| 10 updates

And in case the Congress and the JJP meet the Governor staking a claim to form the government, the ball will be in the Governor’s court then. The Governor might as well ask the BJP to prove the majority. In that scenario, the role of JJP MLAs will be key. Not necessarily that the BJP will be unable to win the floor test again. 

Also, reports suggested that the Congress, for now, wants to focus on the Lok Sabha elections scheduled for May 25. The BJP had won all 10 seats in 2019. The grand old party can, anyway, shift the focus to state assembly after the general elections and close to assembly polls scheduled later this year.