The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon could not have come a moment too soon, especially since Tel Aviv had seemed determined to pursue its war against the Iran-backed militia with the same intensity as its campaign against Hamas in Gaza.
This could’ve reduced even Lebanon’s urban landscape to rubble. The risk of such devastation has fallen, but only by a degree.
While US President Joe spoke of a “permanent cessation of hostilities” as an aim while announcing the deal and added that he hoped for the same in Gaza, whether this truce will last is uncertain.
The agreement is for 60 days, within which Israel must withdraw troops from Lebanese territory and Hezbollah must retreat 40km from the border, assuring Israel a buffer zone.
But, crucially, this period will see Biden replaced by Donald Trump in the White House, so peace prospects in West Asia will probably hinge on what the new US leader makes of the situation.
Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is seen as a reluctant peacemaker, while Trump is expected to back Israel even more strongly than Biden. Yet, on matters of war, Trump is yet to reveal his hand. Will he surprise us?
