With Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed's resignation and flight and the army's assumption of power, albeit in the guise of an interim government, military rule has returned to Bangladesh over three decades after it was forced out in 1990. Parliamentary elections were held in 1991, and elected governments have held office in the country since.
The latest development is a setback for democracy in the South Asian country as well as for India, for whom Sheikh Hasina had been an ally, not just vis-à-vis China as it tried to surround India with hostile neighbours, but also in terms of opposing Islamist radicalism.
The proximate trigger for protests, initiated by university students in July, was the reintroduction of a 30% quota in government jobs for descendants of freedom fighters, religious minorities and underrepresented districts following a court order. The Sheikh Hasina government, which scrapped the quota system in 2018, appealed against the high court order in the Appellate Division of the Supreme Court. On 21 July, the top court ordered that the quota be reduced to 7%. But, by then, the protests had broadened their scope, both in terms of what was being opposed and in terms of participation.
The heavy-handed repression of the protests by the ruling Awami League, making use of the police and its student, youth and volunteer organisations, and counter-attacks by the protesters, whose ranks had been augmented by the Opposition and Islamist elements, changed the course of the protests.
Some intemperate language by the former prime minister added fuel to the fire: She implied that protesters were descendants of Razakars. The word refers to the reviled collaborators of the Pakistan army that had committed genocidal atrocities, including mass rape, in its attempt to put down the revolt of the Bangla people against West Pakistani subjugation of their political and cultural aspirations.
State violence gave an incentive for counter-violence and the death toll in the protests is estimated to be between 300 and 500. The anti-quota protests grew into an anti-government, anti-Hasina uprising, demanding her resignation. Eventually, the army intervened, asked Hasina to quit and promised her safe passage out of the country.
Bangladesh under Hasina has not exactly been a beacon of democracy, with opposition parties boycotting elections and the government banning, rather than politically opposing, outfits like the Jamaat-e-Islami. She disliked criticism and even cracked down on Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus.
From the time of the Liberation struggle, students have actively participated in not just politics but, more specifically, in mass protests. Other political actors follow in their wake. Bangladesh’s economic growth rate has been distinctly above 5% since 2009, plunging below that level briefly in the Covid year of 2020. Even in the downturn of 2023, the economy grew by 5.8%. Bangladesh’s per capita income has overtaken that of Pakistan.
With a relatively high female work participation rate, reportedly more than 42% in 2022, Bangladesh has been able to increase total output. However, the fact that there are more women in the workforce means not just that men face greater competition for jobs but also that traditional patriarchal norms are under challenge. The hunt for jobs and insecurity about the social order add to the disquiet.
The absence of functional democracy prevents the disquiet from finding orderly expression. Protests that spiral swiftly into violence are the primary outlet for widespread disaffection in Bangladesh.
Economic mismanagement leading to hardship for the people and authoritarian responses to the articulation of popular disquiet bottle up dissent. When a catalyst triggers its outburst, political instability and a change of government result. We have seen this happen in Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Now, another South Asian country has joined their ranks.
Creative policies to raise the opportunities for organised sector employment and the expansion of the democratic space for people to vent their grievances and register their pain with those in power would reduce the chances of such disruptive politics. After Sri Lanka and Pakistan, Bangladesh now serves as a negative example of how not to run the affairs of the state.
