Trump or Harris? It’s a tossup for many CEOs

The chief executive of Gulf Coast Bank & Trust isn’t thrilled about casting his vote for either presidential candidate in November.

Guy T. Williams, who leads the community bank in southeastern Louisiana, said he is concerned about former President Donald Trump’s plans to impose more tariffs, a move that could raise prices and slow economic growth. But he isn’t sure Vice President Kamala Harris would be a better choice and worries about the prospect of higher corporate taxes.

“Based on her past record, the vice president leans even further left than President Biden did, and probably has a little bit less economic understanding,” Williams said.

Williams is one of a growing number of CEOs and financiers who find themselves without a natural political home this election season.

The Republican party used to be synonymous with a pro-business mindset, while the Democrats were known as the party of the working class and labor unions. Those alliances have been muddled since the rise of Trump—and particularly after his selection of populist Sen. JD Vance (R., Ohio) as his running mate.

Now, some business and financial leaders say they want lower taxes, lighter regulation and less antitrust scrutiny. They are in favor of free trade and concerned about social and geopolitical instability amid growing movements toward populism and isolationism. Many lean left on social issues such as abortion.

That leaves this group in a tough spot, without an obvious candidate whose platform aligns with their views.

For some, the decision to side with the Republicans was easier in 2016. Trump devoted significant time on the campaign trail to talking up his plans to lower taxes and cut regulations. After he was elected, he surrounded himself with business leaders, appointing Exxon Mobil’s Rex Tillerson and former Goldman Sachs executive Steven Mnuchin to his cabinet and asking others to serve on advisory councils.

But the growing power of the populist faction made many business leaders uncomfortable, especially after the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol. That wing of the party is now the establishment, a reality cemented by Trump’s selection of Vance, a leader in the MAGA movement who is outspokenly anti-Wall Street, as the vice presidential nominee.

“In the eyes of the financial class, there is, increasingly, a difference between Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0,” said Ken Spain, a Republican consultant who advises business leaders. “Where there was once intrigue, there is increasingly apprehension.”

Making some uneasy is the fact that Trump—whose 2017 tax cuts are set to expire after 2025—mentioned taxes only briefly at last month’s Republican National Convention in what appeared to be unscripted remarks.

The problem for these CEOs is that Harris doesn’t necessarily present a better alternative.

Few expect her to embrace Wall Street or business, despite her deep ties to some heavy-hitters in the finance world. Like Biden, she has been vocal in criticizing Trump for giving tax breaks to billionaires and big corporations. It is also unclear how she would manage the economy or handle issues such as antitrust, where many think that Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan, a Biden appointee, has overstepped.

Centrist group No Labels attracted a number of business and Wall Street types who dislike Trump but thought another Biden term could be just as bad. The group tried to field a third-party presidential bid but abandoned its efforts after failing to find a candidate willing to run. Some Wall Street leaders who had initially signed on to its mission backed away out of concern that they would be blamed for helping Trump by drawing moderate Republicans who voted for Biden in 2020.

“People will be really happy that Biden’s gone,” said a private-equity executive connected with No Labels. “There is a good core of people who are afraid of Trump or who are against him.”

Business leaders who have gravitated toward No Labels complain about extremists being given too much power by both parties, a lack of bipartisanship and an unwillingness by leaders to address important issues facing the country because they might be politically thorny, said Ryan Clancy, chief strategist for No Labels.

“The winner of this election is going to be the one that grows their base toward the middle,” Clancy said.

The debate over which party will be better for business has roiled even the typically left-leaning Silicon Valley. Elon Musk, the billionaire CEO of Tesla, and a group of prominent venture capitalists including Marc Andreessen of Andreessen Horowitz, Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale and PayPal alumnus David Sacks are backing Trump.

A long list of others, including former Alphabet Chairman Eric Schmidt, philanthropist Laurene Powell Jobs, tech investors John Doerr and Ron Conway, and LinkedIn co-founder and venture capitalist Reid Hoffman, have pledged their support to Harris.

Business and financial leaders say they want stability and predictability when it comes to economic policy and geopolitics. During Trump’s first term, many lived in fear that they would wake up to learn that the former president had targeted them, their company or a supplier in a late-night tweet.

They also complain that the Biden administration has at times tried to score quick political points on things such as student loan forgiveness, instead of working to solve deeper problems such as tackling the deficit or shoring up Social Security.

“What everyone should be looking for is sensible management of populist and isolationist trends,” said the head of a large private-equity firm. He said he saw measures such as the 2022 Chips and Science Act, aimed at reviving the U.S. semiconductor industry, as a step in the right direction.

With few natural allies, social issues might tip the scales for some business leaders. Those who support a woman’s right to obtain an abortion blame Trump for the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. A former senior banker turned investment manager who is also a longtime Democrat said most people he knows on Wall Street will be voting for Harris.

“It’s hard for a lot of people to put their tax payments ahead of a woman’s right to choose,” he said.

Chip Cutter contributed to this article.

Write to Miriam Gottfried at Miriam.Gottfried@wsj.com