Lebanon Pager Blasts: Israel’s patience runs thin; Is war with Hezbollah imminent now? Explained

Just a day after pagers used by the militant group Hezbollah members exploded, more electronic devices detonated in Lebanon on Wednesday, marking a second wave of deadly attacks.

Both attacks are widely suspected to have been carried out by Israel, raising fears that the ongoing conflict between the two sides could escalate into full-scale war.

Two waves of attack

Earlier on Tuesday, pagers utilised by hundreds of Hezbollah members detonated in various locations in Lebanon and Syria. The attack resulted in the deaths of at least 12 people, including two young children, and left thousands more injured.

The Lebanese government and Iran-backed Hezbollah have also attributed the deadly explosions to Israel.

Also Read: How Israel’s Mossad orchestrated coordinated deadly explosions

Just one day after these incidents, additional detonations occurred in Beirut and other areas of Lebanon on Wednesday, including several blasts during a funeral in Beirut for three Hezbollah members and a child who lost their life in Tuesday's explosions, according to Associated Press.

At least 20 people were killed, and another 450 were wounded, the Health Ministry said, in this apparent second attack.

Pagers were ‘discontinued’ in 2014

Mobile phones became the primary communication tool worldwide; pagers—often referred to as beepers due to the sound they emit to signal incoming messages—have largely fallen out of favour, with demand plummeting from its peak in the 1990s.

For many years, Hezbollah has relied on pagers for communication.

Recently, the group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, cautioned members against using cellphones, stating that Israel could potentially use them to track their movements. Pagers operate on a different wireless network than mobile phones, making them generally more resilient during emergencies.

For Hezbollah, pagers offer a way to circumvent what is believed to be extensive Israeli electronic surveillance on mobile phone networks in Lebanon. The simpler technology of pagers carries lower risks of intercepted communications, providing a more secure option for the group.

Japanese firm Icom said Thursday that it had stopped producing the model of radios reportedly used in recent blasts in Lebanon around 10 years ago, AFP reported.

“The IC-V82 is a handheld radio that was produced and exported, including to the Middle East, from 2004 to October 2014. It was discontinued about 10 years ago, and since then, it has not been shipped from our company,” Icom said in a statement.

What do analysts say?

Elijah J. Magnier, a Brussels-based veteran and senior political risk analyst, told the AP that the newer model of pagers used in Tuesday’s explosions was acquired more than six months ago, though how they reached Lebanon remains unclear.

Taiwanese company Gold Apollo confirmed on Wednesday that it authorized the use of its brand for the AR-924 pager model. However, it noted that the devices were produced and sold by a Budapest-based company called BAC Consulting KFT.

Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs reported that it had no records of direct exports of Gold Apollo pagers to Lebanon.

Mechanics of sabotage

Experts to the Associated Press suggested that Tuesday's explosions were likely the result of supply-chain interference. They meant that small explosive devices might have been integrated into the pages before they were delivered to Hezbollah, potentially triggered simultaneously via a remote radio signal.

As reported by AP, a former British Army bomb disposal officer detailed that an explosive device typically consists of five main components: a container, a battery, a triggering device, a detonator, and an explosive charge.

“A pager has three of those already,” said the ex-officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he now works as a consultant with clients on the Middle East. “You would only need to add the detonator and the charge.”

Sean Moorhouse, a former British Army officer and explosives expert, noted that Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, Mossad, is the most likely suspect to possess the resources for such an operation, given its history of executing similar attacks.

While the details of Wednesday's explosions remain unclear, reports of additional electronic devices detonating suggest a deeper level of infiltration and boobytrap-like interference within Lebanon’s supply chain. This situation heightens concerns about the uncertainty surrounding who may have these rigged devices.

Mossad tracked the movements of Hezbollah members?

Experts told AP that the timeline for such preparations could range from several months to as long as two years.

Nicholas Reese, an adjunct instructor at NYU's School of Professional Studies, explained that executing an operation of this scale necessitates building relationships to gain physical access to the pagers before their sale, developing the embedded technology, and securing sources to verify that the intended targets were using the devices.

According to conversations with Hezbollah contacts, Elijah J. Magnier reported that the group is investigating the type of explosives used in the devices, suspecting either RDX or PETN—highly explosive materials capable of causing significant damage with as little as 3 to 5 grams. They are also exploring the possibility that the devices contained GPS systems, which could allow Israel to track the movements of group members.

N.R. Jenzen-Jones, an expert in military arms and director of the Australian-based Armament Research Services, added that “such a large-scale operation also raises questions of targeting" — stressing the number of causalities and enormous impact reported so far, reported Associated Press.

“How can the party initiating the explosive be sure that a target’s child, for example, is not playing with the pager at the time it functions?” he said.

Is war with Hezbollah imminent as Israel's patience runs thin?

Hezbollah, promising to retaliate against Israel, said on Wednesday that it targeted Israeli artillery positions with rockets. This marked its first offensive action against Israel since the recent explosions. The Israeli military reported no damage or casualties from the attack.

“Hezbollah seeks to avoid an all-out war,” noted Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy director of research at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “However, given the scale of the situation, there will be pressure for a stronger response.”

The military movements have been accompanied by heightened rhetoric from Israel's leaders, who say their patience is running thin.

(With inputs from agencies)