Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by small margin in race to become next US president: Presidential forecast

US Vice President and Democrat Kamala Harris is leading the presidential race by a small margin, according to The Economist’s presidential forecast. The latest data revealed that Kamala Harris has "about a 3 in 5 chance" of winning the electoral college, while Trump has "about a 2 in 5 chance".

The data further showed that Harris is likely to win the majority of the electoral college at 281 –  slightly more than the number needed to win the elections. 

Meanwhile, Trump may win votes of 257 electors, according to the forecast updated on September 30. A candidate needs the support of 270 electoral college members to win the US presidential elections.

Besides this, the latest national polling averages shared by the Economist showed Harris at 49.9 percent and Trump at 46.2 percent.

What is Electoral College?

In the US elections, the US president and vice president are not elected directly by citizens. Instead, they are chosen through the Electoral College process.

Each state gets as many electors as it has members of Congress (House and Senate). Including Washington, DC’s three electors, there are currently 538 electors in all. A candidate needs the support of half of them (270) to win the polls.

When a US citizen votes for a Presidential candidate in Vovember elections, he/she is actually voting for your candidate's preferred electors.

Later in December, State electors’ votes are recorded on a Certificate of Vote, which is prepared at the meeting by the electors.

The State’s Certificate of Vote is sent to Congress. Each State’s electoral votes are then counted in a joint session of Congress on January 6 in the year following the meeting of the electors.

The President of the Senate then declares which persons, if any, have been elected President and Vice President of the United States.

Methodology of presidential forecast

Detailing its methodology for revealing national forecast, the Economist says it "run over 10,000 simulations of the election" to "to work out the probable electoral-vote totals. The chance of a tie in the electoral college is less than 1 in 100."

The Economist’s model of America’s presidential election estimates each major candidate’s chances of winning each state and the overall electoral college.

"...the forecast combines national and state-level polls with fundamental data about the state of the economy, historical voting patterns and the demographics of each state to predict the likelihood of various outcomes of the race," the report adds.

Americans will elect their next president on November 5 this year.