Japan’s ruling coalition at risk of losing majority as PM Shigeru Ishiba’s snap polls gamble backfires

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is a self-confessed defence geek and train-lover whose snap election gamble backfired as his Liberal Democratic Party suffered its worst result in 15 years.

The disastrous outcome widely projected by local media after Sunday's election is a serious blow to 67-year-old Ishiba, a party veteran who is also a fan of 1970s pop idols and making military models.

Last month he saw off eight other candidates to become head of the conservative LDP, which has governed Japan almost uninterrupted for seven decades, albeit with frequent changes of leader.

He took office days later, replacing Fumio Kishida, who suffered from discontent over rising prices, a slush fund scandal and LDP ties to a Christian movement in the wake of the 2022 assassination of ex-premier Shinzo Abe.

At a rally on Saturday, Ishiba pledged that the LDP would "start afresh as a fair, just and sincere party".

But it wasn't enough to convince voters, with the LDP falling short of a majority for the first time since 2009 on Sunday, according to the exit-poll projections from national broadcaster NHK and others.

Worse than that, even when combined with the seats won by long-term coalition partner Komeito, the LDP is expected to miss the required 233 seats in the lower house -- a level that Ishiba set as his minimum goal.

‘New Japan’

Ishiba had four previous failed bids to lead the party, including in 2012 against his arch-rival Abe.

He long alienated party heavyweights with his "outspoken criticism of LDP policies under Abe", said Yu Uchiyama, a politics professor at the University of Tokyo.

But the politician became "vocal about the need for the LDP to turn over a new leaf," which may have worked in his favour, Uchiyama told AFP before the election.

Despite hiccups, including over a doctored photo of the cabinet, Ishiba got off to a good start and called elections after barely a week in office.

"This is an attempt to create a new Japan that will drastically change the nature of Japanese society. In order to boldly carry out this major change, we need the confidence of the people," he declared.

He pledged to revitalise depressed rural regions and to address the "quiet emergency" of Japan's falling population with measures to support families like flexible working hours.

In an apparent reference to China, Ishiba said that "today's Ukraine could be tomorrow's East Asia", with the regional environment "the most severe since the end of World War II".

He has also backed the creation of a regional military alliance along the lines of NATO to counter China, although he has since cautioned it would "not happen overnight".

Economic policies

Ishiba's support before becoming premier for the Bank of Japan's exit from its ultra-loose policies sent the yen surging and stocks tumbling after he won the LDP leadership.

He steadied markets by stating the time was not right for more interest rate hikes.

Ishiba's ratings edged down over the past weeks, not helped by him rowing back his position on issues including allowing married couples to take separate surnames.

The father-of-two also missed a chance to appear more modern by appointing only two women to his cabinet, down from five under Kishida.

"Regardless of what the election results are, Ishiba's longevity as prime minister is in question," said Rintaro Nishimura at think-tank The Asia Group ahead of the election.

"There is a group of people (in the LDP) that could form a critical mass... and try and usher in a change. Not a change in government, but a change in leadership within the LDP."

Ahead of the election, local media speculated that Ishiba could potentially resign immediately after a bad result to take responsibility.

That would make him Japan's shortest-serving prime minister in the post-war period.

The current record is held by Naruhiko Higashikuni who served for 54 days just after Japan's World War II defeat.