Israel and Lebanon agree to 60-day ceasefire: IDF to begin phased withdrawal under US-France oversight – How it works

Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire: In a significant development for the Middle East, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and Hezbollah will take effect on Wednesday at 4 am local time (7.30 am IST), halting a year-long conflict that has recently intensified in southern Lebanon and northern Israel. Announcing the deal on Tuesday, US President Joe Biden hailed the accord as a crucial step towards stability in the region.

The hours leading up to the ceasefire saw an escalation in Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon, drawing sharp criticism from Lebanese authorities and international observers.

The agreement, which Israel’s cabinet approved in a 10-1 vote, outlines a 60-day cessation of hostilities. However, tensions remain high, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cautioning that any breach by Hezbollah could lead to renewed military action.

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire: Coordinated Withdrawal

Under the agreement, Israeli troops will begin a phased withdrawal from southern Lebanon over the next two months. Simultaneously, the Lebanese army will deploy south of the Litani River to reassert state sovereignty and ensure that Hezbollah militants do not re-establish their positions.

A senior Biden administration official clarified that Israeli forces would initially maintain their positions to prevent a security vacuum. “The Lebanese military and security forces will begin their deployment in the south, and as they take up positions, the Israeli military will gradually withdraw,” the official stated.

The US and France will assist in monitoring the implementation of the deal through an existing verification mission, which was originally established following the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war but has been largely ineffective. This mission will not involve the deployment of US troops in Lebanon but will focus on enhancing the Lebanese army’s operational capacity.

Netanyahu’s Warning and Hezbollah’s Response

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s warning about potential retaliation underscores the fragility of the ceasefire. “If Hezbollah violates this agreement, Israel will not hesitate to respond,” he said during a press briefing. Conversely, concerns remain about how Hezbollah might perceive any perceived Israeli provocations.

When questioned about potential violations by either side, a US administration official admitted that Lebanon’s sovereignty would be pivotal in addressing any such scenarios. “The aim is to empower Lebanese forces to repel any aggression while ensuring compliance with the ceasefire terms,” the official noted.

“There really was a sense of (the administration official) simply not wanting to entertain the idea that Israel could suddenly decide that, well, ‘we’re going back in’. When asked a specific question, that it didn’t seem the administration official was terribly prepared for – ‘What if Hezbollah thinks that Israel has violated the deal?’ – there was this very waffly answer that seemed to suggest that Lebanon would have sovereignty in the south to repel any Israeli attack.”, Al Jazeera reported.

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire: Israeli Escalation Ahead of the Ceasefire

In the lead-up to the ceasefire, the final hours, Israel intensified its bombing campaign across Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah strongholds, including Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Israel issued evacuation notices in several areas, with Lebanon’s public health ministry reporting multiple casualties and injuries. The escalation has raised questions about whether Israel’s actions were intended as a final show of strength before the cessation of hostilities.

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire: Role of International Mediators

The negotiations, facilitated by the United States, involved no discussion of additional military aid for Israel, according to US officials. Instead, efforts focused on ensuring a balanced withdrawal process and preventing a resurgence of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure.

France’s involvement in the verification process signals a renewed international effort to stabilise southern Lebanon. The phased withdrawal plan aims to avoid creating a vacuum that could lead to further unrest.

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire: A new era or temporary pause?

Although the agreement marks a pause in hostilities, its durability remains uncertain. The involvement of international observers – US and France, and the Lebanese army's role in securing the south of Lebanon will be critical in determining whether the ceasefire can transition into a long-term resolution.

President Joe Biden's administration has briefed President-elect Donald Trump’s team on the terms of the deal, ensuring continuity in US engagement on the issue.