PM Modi heads to Moscow next week; will meet Putin in first trip to Russia since Ukraine war

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to embark on his first visit to Russia since the onset of the Ukraine conflict on July 8. His visit underscores India's delicate balancing act, as it navigates maintaining its longstanding alliance with Moscow while seeking closer security ties with Western nations.

The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said in an official release on Thursday, "After concluding the trip to Russia, Modi will travel to Austria, which will be the first visit by an Indian prime minister to that country in 41 years."

Modi's last visit to Russia was in 2019, when he attended an economic conclave in the Far East city of Vladivostok.

Russia remains a crucial supplier of affordable oil and weaponry to India. However, Russia's strained relations with the West and its deepening alignment with China have influenced its traditional partnership with New Delhi over time.

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In recent years, the United States and its Western allies have strengthened relations with India as a counterbalance to Beijing's expanding influence in the Asia-Pacific region. Moreover, they have urged India to reduce its ties with Russia.

As reported by AFP, Russia's war in Ukraine has “transformed” ties with India, said Swasti Rao, from a think tank funded by India's defence ministry, the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.

"There is no decline in goodwill between India and Russia per se," she said. "But there are challenges that have cropped up.

"These are external factors, which have been strong enough to bring in a paradigm shift in India-Russia bilateral issues," she added.

Nandan Unnikrishnan of the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation said the upcoming in-person meeting showed the two sides were looking for ways forward. “There have been pressures on India, and there have been pressures on the India-Russia relationship,” Unnikrishnan said, AFP reported.

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“Face-to-face interactions help in working out positions,” he added. “I'm sure Modi would like an assessment from Putin on the Ukraine war.”

New Delhi has refrained from explicitly condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and has opted to abstain from United Nations resolutions criticizing Moscow.

However, Russia's military actions in Ukraine have also had a significant human impact on India. In February, India stated it was actively negotiating with Russia for the release of its citizens who had been recruited for "support jobs" with the Russian military. Reports had surfaced alleging that some of these individuals were compelled to engage in combat and had lost their lives in Ukraine.

India is a member of the Quad grouping alongside the United States, Japan, and Australia, which aims to counterbalance China's increasing assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region.

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The United States and the European Union (EU) have accused China of supplying components and equipment to strengthen Russia's military capabilities. These allegations have been vehemently denied by Beijing.

That leaves India with a dilemma.

Their “relationship has to evolve”, said Rao.

"Some say India should strongly engage with Russia so it doesn't fall into the lap of China," said Rao. “Others would say, that ship has sailed,” AFP reported.

New Delhi and Moscow have forged a tight relationship since the Cold War, and Russia was for a long time India's biggest arms supplier.

But Ukraine has stretched Russia's arms supplies, and India is eyeing other sources -- including growing its own defence industry.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia's share of Indian weapons imports has shrunk considerably in recent years.

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SIPRI said it dropped from 76 per cent in 2009-13 to 36 per cent in 2019-23, noting that France is now a close second, providing 33 per cent.

“India has instead looked to Western suppliers, most notably France and the USA, and its own arms industry,” SIPRI said, adding that its arms procurement plans “seemingly do not include any Russian options”.

Arms down, oil up

AFP reported citing Rao that the Ukraine war had “accelerated” India's push to diversify its defence purchases. “The Ukraine war has become one of grinding attrition,” she said.

“There are genuine concerns about Russia's export capabilities, and its focus and priorities.”

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Simultaneously, India has emerged as a significant purchaser of discounted Russian oil, serving as a crucial export market for Moscow after it faced restrictions from its traditional buyers in Europe. This dynamic has fundamentally transformed energy relations, enabling India to save billions of dollars while also contributing to Russia's financial resources amid its ongoing conflict efforts.

India's month-on-month imports of Russian crude “increased by eight percent in May, to the highest levels since July 2023”, according to commodity tracking data compiled by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

“Russian crude comprised 41 percent of India's total crude imports in May, and with new agreements in place to conduct payments in rubles, the trade might grow significantly,” the research centre said.

However, India's increased purchase of discounted Russian oil has contributed to a trade deficit with Russia, which reached a little over $57 billion in the past financial year.

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Following his visit to Moscow, Prime Minister Modi will proceed to Vienna. This marks the first visit by an Indian leader to the Austrian capital since Indira Gandhi's visit in 1983.

“This will be the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to Austria in 41 years. He will call on President of the Republic of Austria Alexander Van der Bellen and hold talks with Chancellor of Austria Karl Nehammer,” the MEA said.

“The prime minister and Chancellor will also address business leaders from India and Austria,” it said in a statement.

(With inputs from AFP)