The Biden administration is racing to complete a study that could complicate President-Elect Donald Trump’s plan to immediately approve new liquefied natural gas export terminals, according to people familiar with the matter.
The study, underway since January, examines the climate, economic and national security implications of increasing US exports of the fuel. Biden launched it while imposing a halt on new LNG export licenses, a moratorium Trump has vowed to end on his first day back in the White House. Should the study find additional exports cause more harm than good, or add new conditions to them, the new administration’s project approvals could be challenged in court.
“If Trump wants to say ‘Yes’ on day one, and there is a study that says ‘Yes’ isn’t in the public interest, then those approvals might be targets of legal challenges,” said Kevin Book, managing director of consulting firm ClearView Energy Partners.
The Energy Department is trying to complete the study this month, according to people familiar with the matter. It remains to be seen if that goal, which was set prior to Trump’s electoral victory this week, will be met, the people said. The Energy Department has vowed not to finalize the study until a 60-day public comment period expires, leaving a narrow window to ensure it’s in effect before Trump takes office on Jan. 20.
The department did not respond to a request for comment.
The study, however, could prove to be little more than a speed bump to an incoming Republican administration that has promised to increase US fossil fuel production.
Trump’s win will likely make it easier for developers to build LNG export terminals, cementing the US’s role as the biggest global supplier of the fuel. Biden’s moratorium threatened to disrupt plans for multibillion-dollar export projects by Venture Global LNG Inc., Energy Transfer LP and Commonwealth LNG.
“We’re very optimistic that what happened yesterday is going to really help,” said Mackie McCrea, co-chief executive officer of Energy Transfer, during the company’s earnings call on Wednesday. “So yes, we’re very bullish on getting LNG to the finish line.”
In addition to approving new export permits, Trump will be well-positioned to pressure allied countries to buy American LNG, peddling the fuel in a way Biden never did.
Negative findings in the long-awaited study could slow down new LNG projects. Although the Trump administration could choose to ignore the study, project operators and sponsors would face the threat and uncertainty of legal jeopardy. Redoing the study could take as long as a year, Book said, while amending the existing study could take at least a month.
Shares of US LNG companies surged Wednesday after Trump clinched victory. Cheniere Energy Inc., which operates an export terminal in Louisiana and is expanding a second one in Texas, rose 2.8% to close at an all-time high. NextDecade Corp. soared 15%. Sempra, which is building a plant in Texas, rose 7.3%, the most in more than four years.
“We have growing confidence in getting the permits we need,” Sempra Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Martin said during the company’s third quarter earnings call Wednesday.
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