As American citizens head to the polls on November 5, the close contest between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump could mean the outcome won’t be known immediately. Due to the extensive counting of mail-in and absentee ballots in key battleground states, the initial results may shift over several days, mirroring patterns from the 2020 election.
Here’s what to expect in seven swing states that are likely to determine the next president.
Mail-in voting remains highly popular in Arizona, with nearly 90% of voters casting ballots early in 2020. Election officials can process and tabulate these ballots upon receipt, but results will be withheld until an hour after polls close. Votes dropped off on Election Day – often a significant portion – can take days to count, which may initially favor Harris before trending toward Trump as Election Day ballots are tallied. Late-arriving mail ballots could again shift results back toward Harris over subsequent days.
Georgia anticipates high early in-person turnout, with up to 70% of ballots expected to be cast before Election Day. While absentee ballots can be processed in advance, counting only begins on Election Day. Under state law, all early votes are to be reported by 8 p.m. ET. Overseas and military ballots, which could impact a close race, will be counted if they arrive within three days. Officials expect to complete the count by midnight, but the final outcome could hinge on these additional ballots.
For the first time, Michigan has implemented early in-person voting and now allows larger jurisdictions to process mail ballots up to eight days before Election Day. This should expedite results, reducing the chance of a "red mirage," like in 2020, when initial results favored Trump before mail-in ballots shifted the lead to Biden. Smaller jurisdictions can begin processing ballots only the day before Nov. 5, so close margins may still create delays.
Recent rule changes in Nevada allow officials to begin processing and counting mail ballots early. While in-person early votes can be counted starting at 8 a.m. PT on Election Day, the state’s acceptance of late-arriving mail ballots – if postmarked by Nov. 5 and received within four days – could delay final results. These late ballots typically favor Democrats, which may lead to a shift toward Harris post-Election Day.
North Carolina processes mail ballots ahead of Election Day, meaning the first results will reflect early mail and in-person voting. Election Day ballots will follow, likely tightening the initial Harris lead as more votes are counted. Absentee ballots postmarked by Nov. 5 will be counted during a 10-day canvassing period, meaning a close race might not be resolved for a week or more.
A critical swing state, Pennsylvania is not permitted to process mail ballots until Election Day begins, causing significant delays. The initial results will likely show Trump leading based on in-person votes, but that margin may narrow as mail ballots are counted. A recent law requires counties to announce the number of uncounted mail ballots by midnight on election night to increase transparency and counter potential misinformation.
With similar ballot processing rules to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin cannot count mail-in ballots until Election Day. Major cities, like Milwaukee, centralize ballot processing, resulting in substantial vote counts being released in batches, often after polls close. In 2020, an early morning release of absentee ballots in Milwaukee dramatically shifted the results, leading Trump and his supporters to allege fraud. A similar reporting pattern could occur this year as mail ballots favor Harris.
With varying procedures across battleground states, the nation may witness a fluctuating vote count in the days following Nov. 5, with potential shifts in each candidate's lead as mail ballots are tallied. Election officials are aiming for transparency to prevent misinformation, but a close race could mean days or even weeks before a final winner is declared.
(With inputs from Reuters)
