GOP pollster Mitchell Brown forecasted that this year's election will see a rarity not seen since 1988: neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris will secure wins in all three critical battleground states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
As per reports, Brown noted that while Trump's prospects look strong in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, it's unlikely that any candidate will win all three of the key states. Brown pointed out that in 2016, Trump took all three, while Biden won them in 2020.
Also Read: US Presidential polls 2024: THESE seven critical ‘swing states’ to determine next US President
The states that supported Democratic President Joe Biden in 2020 and former Republican President Donald Trump in 2016 are frequently cited as swing states. These seven states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—are critical to determining the next president.
Wisconsin has been pivotal in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, with the winning candidate decided by just over 20,000 votes each time. Analysts believe that third-party candidates could significantly influence outcomes in marginal states like Wisconsin, especially as they campaign against the dominant two parties.
Earlier, Trump has emphasized the state's importance, stating, "If we win Wisconsin, we win the whole thing." Notably, the summer Republican National Convention took place in Milwaukee, further highlighting the state's strategic value in the electoral landscape.
In the 2020 election, Pennsylvania played a key role in helping Joe Biden secure the presidency and reclaim the “blue wall.” Historically, Democratic candidates have had significant success in the state until Donald Trump's win in 2016.
Historically, winning these states has been crucial for presidential candidates, with the notable exception of Al Gore, who won them but still lost to George W. Bush.
Brown stated on Thursday, "What I see is that neither candidate will win all three states. If Trump secures even one, he wins the election. I still think Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the most likely to go for Trump, but if turnout is high and we see a repeat of previous trends, Trump could take all three, leaving Kamala with none."
