US Election 2024: Will early signs reveal who’s winning Presidential race – Harris or Trump? All you need to know

US Election 2024: The curtains have come down on the high-octane US Presidential election campaign on Monday night. Both the candidates – Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump – made their last- ditch effort to woo voters in battleground states, including Pennsylvania, hours before the voting began on Tuesday, November 5.

A report in the New York Times said former President Trump had been running for president for nine years. Trump began his first term as US President in 2016, followed by his second bid, which he lost in 2020, and now his third bid against Vice President Kamala Harris. Democrat Harris started her campaign for the Presidential Election 16 weeks ago after President Joe Biden opted out.

There were highs and lows throughout the campaign. It took a violent turn when there were two assassination attempts on Trump, including a bullet flying just past Trump’s head when a shooter attempted to assassinate him during a poll rally in Pennsylvania in July.

According to a report in the New York Times, more than 78 million people have already voted in early polling. As of now, Trump and Harris are locked in a tight contest across the country and in all seven key battleground states.

Certain indicators can provide early clues about the direction of a close race between Trump and Harris, even before all votes are counted, some reports in US media suggested. What are they? Mint explains:

Early Trends- Eastern Time

After the polling, which begins on November 5 evening—according to Indian time—and is over by Wednesday morning (Tuesday night in the US), all eyes will be on what we call 'early trends' in India. These trends will not indicate who is winning but how close the fight is turning out to be and how long it will take for news outlets to announce the winner.

The first battleground state, for example, where the polls will close is Georgia, at 7 pm, November 5 Eastern time, which is 5.30 am Indian time on November 6, Wednesday. In North Carolina, the polls end at 7:30 pm Eastern Time, which is 6 am Wednesday in India.

Some of the results in these states are expected early since voters cast ballots early in both states, according to a New York Times report. But the majority of ballots in both states are likely to be tallied and reported by midnight in the US, which is after 9.30 AM (Wednesday) in India.

A lot will depend on the leads in these two states as for as achieving the 270 electoral votes target is concerned. In case the contest in these two states turns out to be tight, it could all come down to the three so-called Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, the NYT report said.

The Pennsylvania Delay

In Pennsylvania, considered a must-win state for both candidates, polls close at 8 pm Eastern time (Tuesday) which is 6.30 am in India on November 6, Wednesday. The counting in this state is expected to stretch many hours further since election workers aren’t allowed to start processing mail ballots until the final Election Day.

On her concluding day of the campaign, Harris took part in five campaign stops in Pennsylvania, including two cities where Trump also visited, Reading and Pittsburgh. She ended the day in Philadelphia with a star-studded event at the ‘Rocky steps’ of the Philadelphia Museum of Art – the site of a famous scene from the movie ‘Rocky.’

Trump was also in Pennsylvania on Monday, a day before Election Day, to urge supporters who have not yet cast their ballots to show up and vote.

In Michigan, where the last polls close at 9 pm Eastern time (7.30 am on Wednesday in India), half the ballots were counted by midnight in 2020 and 2022. In Wisconsin, where polls close at 9 pm Eastern (7.30 am on Wednesday in India), counting could stretch by many hours, the NYT report said.

Trump’s best path to the presidency is seen through victories in Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, while Harris’s best path is seen through wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. “And if the picture is muddled, we could find ourselves looking west for answers — and that could mean a long wait,” reads the NYT report

Western Swing States

The polls in Arizona and Nevada – the two swing states in the west – close at 9 pm and 10 pm, Eastern time which means after 7.30 am on Wednesday in India. According to US media, both states rely heavily on mail ballots, and the counting could stretch for days.

In 2020, Trump declared victory just after 2 am on election night, but he lost the election. And instead was held responsible for a deadly attack on the US Capitol months later on January 6, 2021.