What happens if neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump secures the necessary Electoral College majority to win the U.S. election? Though unlikely, this scenario remains a possibility, adding to the anxiety of Americans already on edge ahead of the November 5 election.
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In the U.S. system, it’s not the national popular vote that determines the president, but the 538-member "Electoral College," where each state is allocated electors based on its Congressional representation, AFP reported.
Every state except Nebraska and Maine awards all of their electors to whoever comes first in the state-wide popular vote.
If both Harris and Trump fail to secure the majority of 270 electoral votes, the U.S. Constitution stipulates that Congress would step in to decide the outcome.
In this case, the newly elected House of Representatives would select the president in January, while the Senate would choose the vice president.
A 269-269 Electoral College split could arise under several scenarios. For instance, if Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, but Trump takes Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and a single Democratic-leaning district in Nebraska, the race would end in a deadlock.
A tie would trigger a "contingent election" in Congress—a scenario that has never occurred in modern American history.
The last time Congress had to choose the president due to a tie was in the 1800 election, when Thomas Jefferson faced off against incumbent president John Adams. Lawmakers in a deeply divided House of Representatives struggled to reach a consensus, ultimately selecting Jefferson on the 36th ballot.
The prolonged deadlock led to the adoption of the 12th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution just four years later, aiming to clarify and streamline the election process.
This time, if such a House vote should be necessary, it would take place on January 6, 2025.
How would that vote proceed?
"Each state, regardless of population, casts a single vote for President in a contingent election," according to the Congressional Research Service (CRS).
In other words, Republican-leaning Wyoming with its city-sized population of 500,000 would have the same influence as Democratic California, where 39 million people live, AFP reported.
Though the US capital city Washington has three Electoral College votes, it would not get a vote in a contingent election, as it is not a state.
States with two or more representatives would need to hold an internal vote to determine which candidate to support, a CRS report said.
To win the presidency, a candidate must secure a majority of the 50 states, or 26 electoral votes. Currently, this would likely give Republicans an edge.
However, specific rules governing the contingent election process would need to be determined by the House, which could spark intense debates and potentially result in a prolonged period of constitutional crisis.
Given the razor-thin margins of the current campaign, it’s easy to see how such a process could further strain the already frayed nerves of American voters, many of whom are deeply concerned about the integrity of the election and suspect widespread irregularities.
(With inputs from AFP)
