As the U.S. Presidential Election approaches, a new poll indicates a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in key battleground states, Arizona and Nevada.
According to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS, Harris holds 48% support among likely voters in Arizona, while Trump follows closely with 47%. In Nevada, Trump has a slight edge with 48%, compared to Harris's 47%.
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These narrow margins are within the poll's margin of error, indicating no clear frontrunner in either state.
The surveys show that voters' opinions are largely set regarding which candidate would handle key issues better and neither candidate has significantly swayed a majority of voters on attributes such as caring for their constituents, sharing a vision for the country, or prioritising national interests over personal gain, as per CNN.
While the race in Nevada has remained stable since late August, recent results in Arizona show a shift toward Harris, particularly among key Democratic demographics such as women, Latino voters, and younger voters. Women support Harris by a 16-point margin, while men favor Trump by 14 points.
In Nevada, Harris leads narrowly among women with 51% compared to Trump's 46%. However, Trump has a strong advantage among White voters, leading by 15 points among White men and 12 points among White women, according to CNN.
Hispanic voters in Nevada are nearly evenly split, while Harris has a significant lead among voters under 35.
In Arizona, independent voters are divided, with Trump at 45% and Harris at 43%. In Nevada, independent likely voters lean slightly toward Harris at 46% compared to 43% for Trump, showing little change since August.
Democratic candidates for the US Senate in both states appear to be in a strong position. In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake 51 per cent to 43 per cent. In Nevada, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is ahead of Republican challenger Sam Brown 50 per cent to 41 per cent.
In Arizona, a proposed amendment to establish a constitutional right to abortion has strong support, with 60 per cent of likely voters in favour.
Both states have a robust early and mail-in voting process. According to the polls, 55 per cent of likely voters in Arizona and 42 per cent in Nevada report having already voted and more registered Republicans have voted early compared to registered Democrats, CNN reported.
In Arizona, Harris still leads among those early votes (53 per cent to 44 per cent for Trump), while in Nevada, Trump has the advantage (52 per cent to 46 per cent).
Around one-fifth of voters in both states believe neither candidate is honest and trustworthy, which is a higher rejection rate than for other personal traits.
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Confidence in the accuracy of ballot casting and counting has increased since late August. About 81 per cent of likely voters in Nevada (up 10 points since August) and 76 per cent in Arizona (up 8 points) express at least some confidence in the process. This increase is primarily among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
As reported by ANI, despite these gains, trust in the electoral process remains significantly lower among Republicans than Democrats in both states. In Arizona, 69 percent of Democratic-aligned likely voters are very confident, compared with just 21 percent of Republican-aligned voters. The disparity is even larger in Nevada, where 71 percent of Democratic-leaning voters are very confident, compared to 16 percent of Republican-leaning voters.
The polling was conducted from October 21-26, 2024, involving 781 voters in Arizona and 683 in Nevada. The likely voter samples were weighted for expected voting behavior, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona and 4.6 points in Nevada.
Meanwhile, the latest presidential forecast from The Hill indicates that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris, with Trump at 54% support and Harris at 46%. Trump holds a narrow advantage in five of the six "toss-up" states—Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—while Harris has a slight lead in Michigan. However, the differences remain within the typical margin of polling error, according to The Hill.
(With inputs from ANI)
