The question is simple: Who is going to win in November? The answer is complex, because it derives from a mix of many different trends and campaign efforts that must come together to produce a single result. At this point Donald Trump has an edge, but that edge could easily disappear.
The reason Mr. Trump has a slight edge is straightforward: He dominates on the core issues that people say they care about most. He holds a 12-point lead over Kamala Harris on which candidate would do a better job on immigration, and a 4-point lead on both inflation and crime, according to the October 2024 Harvard CAPS/Harris poll. Such core domestic issues are usually what determines who gets elected, and Mr. Trump leads in all three of this election cycle’s top concerns.
The second reason for Mr. Trump’s advantage is that voters have more confidence in him on the issues of war and peace. Seventy percent of voters believe he has sufficient experience in foreign affairs, and he leads significantly in polling about which candidate would do a better job on the war in Ukraine, relations with China, and the war between Israel and Hamas.
Mr. Trump also has an edge over Ms. Harris because he has reduced the Democrats’ lead among black and Latino voters, especially among men. He has adopted a successful strategy of finding niche issues in key swing states—no tax on tips in Nevada, fracking in Pennsylvania and saving auto-manufacturing jobs in Michigan. Latino voters have particularly high levels of concern about the economy, and Mr. Trump has closed the electoral gap from a 25 point Democratic advantage in 2020 to just 12 points averaged from the past two months.
But you can’t count Ms. Harris out. She has moved her favorable rating from 38% to 49% while persuading many voters to think of Mr. Trump, not her or Joe Biden, as the incumbent.
Her campaign strategy has been clear—identify her weaknesses and confront them. Not doing well with black men? Unveil a program for black men. Getting hit for past positions on the border and healthcare? Change those positions. After being criticized for avoiding interviews, she began giving interviews. She has narrowed Mr. Trump’s lead significantly on the economic issues with her opportunity-economy platform and proposed tax breaks for small businesses. It may be fluff, but it’s appealing fluff.
Perhaps most important, she has elevated the abortion issue and convinced 54% of voters that Mr. Trump would push for and sign a national abortion ban, even though he has said he wouldn’t. This has widened the lead among women she already enjoyed.
Another major factor is the media spin that is obviously in Ms. Harris’s favor. She viciously attacks Mr. Trump, and the headline is “Harris sharpens her attacks on Trump.” Mr. Trump goes after her, and the headline is “Trump escalates threats to political opponents.” The mainstream media continues to do its part to earn the complete distrust of the electorate with its lowest recorded trust ratings in the new Gallup poll.
One area that may make a critical difference is whether Mr. Trump has closed the mail-in vote gap with Ms. Harris. In swing states he seems to be narrowing that disparity, which means he will suffer less fall-off on Election Day. Mail-in votes are 100% in the bank. Election Day votes are less certain, because things come up in people’s lives and opinions change. In recent elections, Republicans have been experiencing 1 to 2 points of “leakage” by relying on Election Day ballots for most of their vote. If they equalize among mail-in voters, they may pick up the 1 or 2 points they need to flip most of the swing states.
Overall, Ms. Harris is running a strong campaign, firming up the Democratic base, showing an even-handed temperament, and confronting her weaknesses. The election may come down to the mail-in ballots and whether the Republicans, as in 2022, win in the polling but fall short in the final tally. Nonetheless, Mr. Trump still has a slight edge—because people think he did a better job than Mr. Biden has, and they believe he would be better at solving the key domestic and foreign-policy issues.
Mr. Penn was a pollster and adviser to Bill and Hillary Clinton, 1995-2008. He is chairman of the Harris Poll and CEO of Stagwell, Inc.
