In charts: BJP and partners poised to sweep Maharashtra

Exceeding pre-poll predictions, the ruling Mahayuti combine—comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena of Eknath Shinde, and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) of Ajit Pawar—was poised to retain power in Maharashtra with a landslide win, show early counting numbers from the Election Commission of India (ECI). Here are five charts, based on the ECI data, that capture the election results of Maharashtra as they stand at 11.15am.

Seat position

At 11.15am, the ECI put out data on 268 seats out of the 288 seats in the state legislature. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the single largest party, leading in 128 of these seats, putting it in pole position to secure the chief ministership of the state. That post was something it had coveted in its last term too, but it had to cede to partners it needed more than they needed it.

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The BJP’s performance also reflects sizable gains over its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Its other two partners in the Mahayuti alliance, the SHS (Shinde) and NCP (AP), were leading in a combined 89 seats. The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), by comparison, is staring at a rout, with the three partners leading in a mere 51 seats between them.

Vote share

As many as three parties in each alliance have meant that the vote share across the state would be fragmented. Between them, the six parties in the two main alliances had a vote share of about 81%. The standout number was, once again, from the BJP. At 11.15am, the party had a leading vote share of 24.9%, which was almost double that of the next best party, which was the SHS (Shinde). The three parties from the MVA could manage a vote share of only around 10-11%.

Strike rate

The BJP’s clear edge on vote share over other parties has translated handsomely into seat wins. At 149, the BJP contested the most number of seats across the six parties. It also had the highest strike rate, leading in as many as 86% of these seats. Its other two partners, by comparison, had a strike rate of 61-65%, which is also fairly good. For the three parties in the MVA, a poor vote share translated into low conversion rates of just 14-21%.

Win margins

Even apart from the lead in seats, it has not been a narrow fight, with the BJP leading in 89 of its 128 seats with a margin of greater than 10%. Its other two alliance partners, too, seem to be leading comprehensively, leading with margins of above 10% in 63 of 89 seats in which they are ahead.

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In contrast, the opposition alliance margins are much more evenly distributed across the spectrum, with 14 of 51 leads being less than 2% at 11.15am. In other words, it could get worse for the MVA.

SC-ST seats

Of the 54 seats in the Maharashtra assembly classified as either SC or ST seats, the BJP is leading in 21. Its two alliance partners were leading in nine seats. Hence, the BJP-led alliance was leading in 39 of the 54 reserved seats.

The bulk of the opposition seat wins have come in general seats. Between them, the INC, Shiv Sena (UBT), and the NCP (Sharad Pawar) are leading in only 13 reserved seats of their overall lead total of 51. They are staring at a rout, with massive implications of where do they go from here.

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