India welcomes Donald Trump’s second term

Some countries have greeted Donald Trump’s election with despair. In India, the dominant feeling is hope.

Many pundits and policymakers in the world’s most populous nation view Mr. Trump’s return to the White House as an opportunity to boost U.S.-India ties. They’re optimistic about the president-elect’s rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. They appreciate Mr. Trump’s clear-eyed view of China and Pakistan, as well as the cabinet members he has nominated to implement his foreign policy. And they believe Mr. Trump will end the war in Ukraine and repair U.S. relations with Russia. Trump 2.0 puts India “in a geopolitical sweet spot,” tweeted Yusuf Unjhawala, a foreign-policy expert with Bangalore’s Takshashila Institution.

Mr. Trump’s devotees in India also believe that the incoming administration is less likely than the outgoing one to listen to left-leaning Western nongovernmental organizations and publications that are hostile to Mr. Modi and his Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party. Some of Mr. Modi’s most prominent foreign critics—such as the financier George Soros—are also foes of Mr. Trump. The proverb “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” puts Mr. Modi in the same bucket as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, who are also loathed by progressives.

Unlike China, Russia or Iran, India won’t be among the most pressing concerns facing the new administration. Nonetheless, since Mr. Trump was first elected, India has become a bigger player on the world stage. In 2016, India’s $2.3 trillion economy was the world’s seventh largest at market exchange rates. Today, India’s $3.9 trillion economy is the fifth largest. Bilateral trade in goods and services grew from $114 billion in 2016 to $195 billion in 2023, which made India America’s ninth-largest trading partner.

During his first term, Mr. Trump appeared to build rapport with Mr. Modi. The leaders spoke together at joint rallies in Houston in 2019 and Ahmedabad in 2020. On the campaign trail this year, Mr. Trump referred to Mr. Modi as “a friend” and “the nicest human being.” According to media reports, the Indian prime minister was among the first global leaders to congratulate Mr. Trump on his election victory this month.

On the policy front, the U.S. deepened its defense cooperation with India during the first Trump administration. New Delhi signed agreements to allow greater intelligence sharing and interoperability with the U.S. military. India also significantly increased its purchases of U.S. oil and gas from $4.1 billion in 2018 to $9.5 billion in 2021.

Early on during the first Trump administration, Washington cited its relationship with India as a key part of its broader Indo-Pacific strategy. The U.S. eased export controls on the country, put pressure on Pakistan to stop supporting Islamist terrorism, and backed New Delhi in 2020 after clashes between Indian and Chinese troops in the Himalayas killed dozens of soldiers. Mr. Trump also revived the Quad, an informal grouping of the U.S., India, Japan and Australia.

U.S.-India ties have continued to deepen on President Biden’s watch. His administration feted Mr. Modi at a state visit to Washington last summer, ensured that India successfully hosted the Group of 20 summit later that year, stepped up technological cooperation and further raised the profile of the Quad.

But it hasn’t all been smooth sailing. The sharp downturn in U.S.-Russia relations following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has disconcerted Indian policymakers, who worry that Russia, an old friend and major arms supplier to India, will be pushed irrevocably into Beijing’s embrace.

Another complication: The ouster by protesters this year of Bangladesh’s India-friendly prime minister Sheikh Hasina raised fears in New Delhi that the Muslim-majority nation will endanger India’s security by lurching toward religious extremism. Ms. Hasina’s exit “left scars with the security establishment in India” and strengthened skeptics of closer cooperation with the U.S., said Dhruva Jaishankar, executive director of the think tank Observer Research Foundation America, in a phone interview.

Many Indians view 84-year-old Bangladeshi interim leader Muhammad Yunus as an ineffectual figurehead manipulated by Islamists and the military. Mr. Trump appeared to echo those concerns when he called out the deterioration of law and order in Bangladesh under Mr. Yunus. “I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos,” Mr. Trump tweeted on Oct. 31.

Mr. Trump’s cabinet picks are another reason for Indian optimism. The nominees for secretary of state (Marco Rubio) and national security adviser (Mike Waltz) are both proponents of closer U.S.-India ties. Mr. Rubio has called for a military pact with India and for New Delhi to be treated on par with close U.S. allies such as Israel, Japan and South Korea. Mr. Waltz served as co-chairman of the India Caucus on Capitol Hill.

This doesn’t mean U.S.-India relations won’t face hiccups during the second Trump administration. The war in Ukraine and the U.S. promotion of liberal democracy are complex issues not easily addressed. Last time round, India’s protectionist trade policies led to a mini trade war between the two countries. And Mr. Trump’s crackdown on immigration will almost certainly ruffle feathers in New Delhi. On the whole, though, India has good reason to welcome Mr. Trump’s return to the White House.