IMD warns of extremely heavy rainfall in South and Central India for next 4-5 days as monsoon to strengthen

New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday warned of extremely heavy rainfall in south and central India over the next four to five days due to a low-pressure area over south Chhattisgarh and adjoining Vidarbha. 

“Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan, Goa, central Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe for the next five days. Extremely heavy rainfall is seen over Konkan and Goa today, and during Thursday-Friday; central Maharashtra between Thursday and Saturday; Gujarat, south interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu today; coastal Karnataka today and on Wednesday,” it added.

IMD forecast

According to the weather department, light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning is expected in east and northeast India, including the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Northeast India, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, and Jharkhand over the next five days.

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Very heavy rainfall is forecast for Odisha also on Friday and Saturday, and for Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura on Saturday. Similar weather is predicted for Uttarakhand and east Rajasthan on Wednesday and Thursday.

The southwest monsoon arrived early on the Kerala coast and in northeast India but lost momentum. It reached northwest India on time by 29 June, resulting in Delhi's highest single-day June rainfall in 88 years. Mumbai witnessed similar conditions.

Subsequently, the IMD forecasted above-normal rainfall for July, with heavy rains potentially causing floods in the western Himalayan states and river basins in central India.

La Niña effect

This is partly because the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has returned to neutral, and the cooler phase, known as La Niña, is expected to form in the second half of the monsoon season (August-September).

La Niña is characterized by the cooling of sea surface temperatures, and occurs every 3-5 years, occasionally in consecutive years, leading to increased rainfall and distinct weather patterns, which can result in floods.

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As of 15 July, India has received 2% less than normal rainfall since the beginning of the four-month monsoon season (June-September).