Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over southwest Peninsular India and heavy rainfall over Northeast and adjoining east India for the next five days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
“Very heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan & Goa, Ghat regions of Madhya Maharashtra till Tuesday; Kerala, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka between Saturday and Tuesday, Gujarat today and on Tuesday. Scattered to widespread light to moderate rainfall is seen over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana, Marathwada, Rayalaseema; isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during the next five days,” IMD said on Friday.
This is due to the monsoon trough lying north of its normal position at mean sea level.
After an 11% deficit in June rainfall, the national deficit came down to 2% from 13% since the beginning of the four-month (June-September) monsoon season.
The southwest monsoon this year hit the Kerala coast and northeast India two days and six days earlier than the scheduled date on 30 May and after being normal till Maharashtra on 9 June, it lost momentum due to less low-pressure area, among others.
Additionally, after it regained momentum and reached northwest India on time by 29 June and covered the entire country six days before time on 8 July, it wreaked havoc in some parts of the country, causing highest single-day June rainfall in Delhi in 88 years. Similarly, Mumbai went through a similar situation. Meanwhile, northeast India is reeling under floods.
The weather bureau on 1 July said India could experience above-normal rainfall in July, with heavy rains potentially leading to floods in the western Himalayan states and river basins in the central parts of the country.
This is partly because the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has returned to neutral, and the cooler phase, known as La Niña, is expected to be formed in the second half (August-September) of the monsoon season.
La Niña, meaning “little girl”, is characterised by the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the same regions. It occurs every 3-5 years, and can occasionally happen in consecutive years, leading to increased rainfall and distinct weather patterns, resulting in floods.
As a cyclonic circulation lies over East Bihar and another over northeast Assam, very heavy rainfall is expected over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh today, Nagaland on Sunday and Odisha between Monday and Tuesday. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is likely in Meghalaya today, IMD said.
Widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorm and lightning is predicted over Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh; scattered to widespread light to moderate rainfall over Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and East Rajasthan during the next five days and over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi today and on Saturday. Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad and West Rajasthan during the same period, it added.
