The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast the formation of a cyclone over the north Arabian Sea, off the coast of Gujarat, on Friday, August 30.
The deep depression that has caused torrents of rain over Gujarat for the past three days is likely to move west wards along the coast of Pakistan and Iran. In the upcoming 12 hours, the depression would emerge into the northeast Arabian Sea off Kutch and adjoining Saurashtra and Pakistan coasts and intensify into a cyclonic storm, the IMD stated in its latest release.
Once the depression intensifies into a cyclonic storm, it will be named Cyclone Asna. Pakistan provided the name, which means “he one to be acknowledged or praised” in Urdu.
According to meteorological scientist Dr Soma Sen Roy, Gujarat, and particularly Saurashtra and Kutch, will continue to witness extremely heavy rainfall.
Cyclone Asna would be the first cyclone to form in August in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) region since 1981 and the first in the Arabian Sea since 1976, stated a report by an environmental magazine Down To Earth (DTE), citing IMD data.
As of August 29, the deep depression was located 60 km northwest of Bhuj and 80 km northeast of Naliya in Gujarat, bringing heavy rains to the state.
According to a senior IMD official, the deep depression will find more favourable conditions to intensify into what will be named Cyclone Asna.“The deep depression, which has been sustaining for a few days over Saurashtra, will find even more favourable conditions to intensify into a cyclone over the Arabian Sea. It will get energy from the ocean and get refuelled. Wind shear is low. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is in a favourable position. Circumstances are favourable for intensification over the Arabian Sea,” said the official.
The formation of the cyclone can be attributed to the changes in the wind patterns in the monsoon season and the moisture that the winds have drawn from the land and the Arabian Sea, as mentioned in the DTE report.
To date, 32 cyclones have occurred in the NIO region in August and only four in the Arabian Sea between 1891 and 2023.
