As the country celebrates the auspicious festival of Ganesh Chaturthi, homes are adorned with vibrant decorations, sweets are prepared, and prayers are offered to Lord Ganesha, the symbol of new beginnings and prosperity.
This festival, deeply rooted in tradition, brings families and communities closer, filling hearts with joy, hope, and positivity for the year ahead. However, the celebration of prosperity hasn’t been limited to homes alone—over the past year, the stock market, too, has witnessed its own triumphs.
Since the last Ganesh Chaturthi, the market has surged with the same vigor and energy that the festival inspires. Much like Lord Ganesha, who is known to remove obstacles, the market has overcome economic challenges, geopolitical uncertainties, and inflationary pressures, rewarding investors with substantial gains.
The Nifty 500 index, in particular, has seen 76 stocks deliver stellar returns ranging from 100% to as much as 350%. Investors, much like devotees seeking blessings, have been showered with financial prosperity, making this a truly auspicious period for market participants.
Among the top performers, renewable energy stock Inox Wind led the gains, surging 350% over the past year. Cochin Shipyard, despite facing some corrections, took the second spot with a 290% rise.
Public sector undertakings (PSUs) also dominated the top ranks, with Rail Vikas Nigam delivering an impressive 339% return since last Ganesh Chaturthi. Another standout was Signature Global, whose stock price jumped 273%, while Trent, the retail arm of the Tata Group, posted a strong return of 243%.
Other notable gainers included Godfrey Phillips India, Motilal Oswal Financial, Jai Balaji Industries, DOMS Industries, Oil India, HUDCO, Suzlon Energy, NBCC, MCX, Sobha, Tata Investment Corp., Prestige Estates Properties, Anand Rathi Wealth, PCBL, Kalyan Jewellers, Hitachi Energy India, Zomato, PFC, REC, JSW Infrastructure, Oracle Financial Services, and HPCL, with these stocks posting gains between 150% and 240%.
Over the past year, the Nifty 50 has delivered an impressive return of 28%, while the S&P BSE Sensex has achieved a gain of 23%. Both indices have reached significant milestones, maintaining a strong upward trend for nine out of the last twelve months and significantly outperforming their emerging market counterparts.
The Nifty 50 on September 02 touched a fresh record high of 25,333 points, while the Sensex recorded a new peak of 82,725 points.
Between August 14 and September 2, the Nifty 50 achieved an unprecedented milestone, closing in positive territory for 13 consecutive sessions—its longest uninterrupted winning streak since its inception in April 1996. During this period, the index surged by 1,150 points, or 4.7%.
Expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in September played a crucial role in fueling this record-breaking streak, boosting investor sentiment, particularly towards IT stocks, while auto stocks lagged due to weak sales figures.
Historically, the Nifty 50 has closed 11 straight sessions in positive territory only once, 10 sessions on six occasions, and nine sessions on eight occasions. Despite foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pulling out of Indian markets due to high valuations, they have been actively investing in the primary markets, where valuations appear more attractive.
Despite the selling pressure from FPIs, the stock market remained resilient, as retail investors filled the gap through mutual funds, providing a cushion against FPI outflows.
According to data from the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL), the number of registered demat accounts in India has surpassed 17 crore. As of August 31, 2024, the total stands at 17.10 crore.
In August, the stock market experienced significant volatility, yet approximately 42.3 lakh new demat accounts were opened. Although this growth was slightly below July’s 44.44 lakh new accounts, it marked a substantial increase compared to the 31 lakh accounts opened in August 2023.
Prabhudas Lilladher's latest 'India Strategy' report anticipates that expectations of strong festival season demand, a revival in rural spending, and the possibility of interest rate cuts later this fiscal year will bolster stock markets.
The report highlights that normal monsoon conditions have spurred optimism for increased demand during the festival season. Additionally, July’s inflation rate falling below the RBI's 4% target, coupled with the government's continued capital expenditure while maintaining fiscal discipline, has provided support to Indian stocks. The brokerage sees Nifty moving towards 26,820 points.
InCred Equities forecasts that improved prospects for interest rate reductions, along with anticipated recovery in rural and festival-driven demand, could push the Nifty 50 index above the 26,736 mark by the end of the 2024-2025 financial year.
For the past eight months, the Nifty 50 Index has traded around the 10-year average valuation of 20x one-year forward P/E. The brokerage prefers this long-term perspective as India plays an increasingly significant role in global GDP growth.
InCred has kept its sector ratings unchanged, maintaining an overweight stance on aluminium, capital goods, cement, electronics manufacturing services (EMS), and financial services.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
