The Nifty 50, India’s stock market benchmark, is likely to open on a negative note on Tuesday, November 26, as suggested by trends in the Gift Nifty. Market experts anticipate selling pressure following recent gains, citing the absence of fresh triggers, concerns over foreign capital outflows, subdued Q2 earnings, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Weak global cues further weigh on the domestic market outlook.
Around 7:40 am, the Gift Nifty was at 24,288, a discount of 65 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
The Nifty 50 clocked solid gains in the previous two sessions, jumping almost 4 per cent. Experts attributed the rally in the market to state election results which cemented the scope of political stability and raised expectations of increased government spending in the second half of the current financial year.
On the technical front, the benchmark index moved above the 21 EMA (exponential moving average).
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, says the RSI is in a bullish crossover and trending upward. The sentiment is expected to remain positive in the short term, with buying on dips likely to favour traders.
"On the higher side, 24,500 is expected to act as a crucial resistance; a decisive move above this level could trigger a further rally. Support on the lower side is placed at 23,950–24,000," said De.
Here’s what to expect from Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President of Hedged.in, pointed out that the Nifty 50 formed a Doji candle in the previous session, indicating uncertainty in the rally.
Dwarakanath believes unless Nifty closes above the 24,350 level sustainably, one should continue to hold the view of selling on the rise in the index.
"The weekly momentum indicators are rising from the oversold region, indicating a possible upside towards the immediate resistance at the 23,350 levels. Options writer's data for the monthly expiry showed an increase in the put writing at the 24,300 level and below while a short covering of calls below the 24,100 level, indicating a further upside in the index," said Dwarakanath.
VLA Ambala, co-founder of Stock Market Today, said that on the day chart, the Nifty 50 formed a Doji in the latest session, indicating uncertainty.
"Despite this market situation, the Nifty may hover support at 24,050 and 23,820 and face resistance around 24,485 and 24,550,” said VLA Ambala, the co-founder of Stock Market Today.
According to Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, the Nifty 50 is in the process of retracing the fall it has witnessed from 26,277 to 23,260. The retracement may continue towards 24770, which coincides with the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level.
"Dips towards support zone 24,120 – 24,070 should be considered as buying opportunity," said Gedia.
Nifty Bank jumped 2.10 per cent to 52,207.50
Dwarakanath pointed out that on Monday Bank Nifty broke the mid-part of the Bollinger band on the daily chart, and an expansion of the Bollinger band on the daily chart is visible, indicating that the index is heading higher towards its immediate resistance at 52,900 levels.
"The momentum indicators on the daily chart bounce from the oversold region, indicating that the upside momentum is picking up. The index can be used to buy on the dips until the 51,500 level is intact. Options writer's data of monthly expiry showed increased writing in the puts of 52,000 and below and a short covering in the call writing of the 52,000 and below levels, which can further trigger the index upside," said Dwarakanath.
Gedia observed that on the daily charts, the Nifty Bank index is poised for more upside towards 52,680 – 52,820, which coincides with the 61.82 per cent Fibonacci retracement level as well as the gap area formed on 3 October.
"There can be some consolidation after the sharp up-move, and more upside is expected over the next few trading sessions," said Gedia.
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