Indian stock market: 10 things that changed for market over weekend - Gift Nifty, US nonfarm payrolls to Israel-Iran war

Indian stock market: The domestic equity market indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open higher on Monday tracking gains in global markets and after a sharp slump seen last week.

Asian markets traded mixed, while the US stock market ended with strong gains on Friday after an upbeat jobs report.

Market expectations have swung to the extreme for the US Federal Reserve to do just a 25 bps cut in November, rather than 50 bps, following the US jobs data, Reuters reported. Traders now price in a 95% chance of a quarter point cut, up from 65% in the middle of last week, and a 5% chance of no cut at all, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

On Friday, the Indian stock market indices ended nearly a percent lower, extending losses for the fifth straight session.

The Sensex crashed 808.65 points, or 0.98%, to close at 81,688.45, while the Nifty 50 settled 235.50 points, or 0.93%, lower at 25,014.60.

“We expect markets to consolidate this week amid cautiousness due to fear of increasing tensions in West Asia. With the start of the earning season this week, stock-specific action will continue. Also, the focus will remain on interest-sensitive stock amid the RBI policy meeting next week. Although rate cut is not on the table, commentary will hold great importance,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

This week, investors will closely monitor key market triggers such as the upcoming Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the first set of Q2 results, Israel-Iran war, flows of foreign funds, trends in crude oil prices, and other key domestic and global macroeconomic data.

Here are key global market cues for Sensex today:

Asian Markets

Asia markets traded mixed on Monday led by Japanese stocks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 2.03% and the Topix index rose 1.62%. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.28%, while the Kosdaq rose 0.37%. Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures indicated a lower opening.

Gift Nifty Today

Gift Nifty was trading around 25,260 level, a premium of nearly 70 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a positive start for the Indian stock market indices.

Wall Street

US stock market ended higher on Friday, with the Dow Jones posting a record closing high.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 341.16 points, or 0.81%, to 42,352.75, while the S&P 500 rose 51.13 points, or 0.90%, to 5,751.07. The Nasdaq Composite closed 219.37 points, or 1.22%, higher at 18,137.85.

Spirit Airlines shares crashed 24.6%, Frontier Group stock price jumped 16.4%, United Airlines share price rallied 6.5% and Delta Air Lines stock gained 3.8%. Rivian shares declined 3.2%.

US Nonfarm Payrolls

US job growth accelerated in September and the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1%. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 jobs last month, the most since March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls would rise by 140,000 positions after advancing by a previously reported 142,000 in August.

US Unemployment Rate

The US unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% in September from 4.2% in August, reflecting an increase of 430,000 jobs in household employment, which more than absorbed the 150,000 people who entered the labor force, Reuters reported.

Israel-Iran War

Israel intensified its bombardment of northern Gaza and southern Lebanon with a new round of airstrikes hit Beirut suburbs late Sunday. Palestinian officials said a strike on a mosque killed at least 19 people.

Oil Prices

Crude oil prices pared gains after charting their biggest weekly rise in over a year on Friday.

Brent crude futures fell 0.5% to $77.62 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined 0.5% to $74.03 per barrel.

Currencies

US dollar extended rally after strong US jobs data. The dollar index measure against major rivals was flat. It rose 0.5% on Friday to a seven-week high, logging more than 2% gains for the week, its biggest in two years.

The yen fell marginally to hit 149.10, its weakest level since August 16, after declining 4% last week, its biggest weekly percentage decline since early 2009, Reuters reported. The euro fell 0.06% to $1.0970, while Sterling was flat around $1.3122.

Gold Rate Today

Gold prices eased on higher US dollar and as bets firmed for a smaller US rate cut. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,650.79 per ounce, while the US gold futures rose 0.1% to $2,670.20.

FII Selling

On Friday, Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold Indian shares worth ₹9,896.95 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) net purchased shares to the tune of ₹8,905.08 crore, as per provisional data available on the exchanges.

(With inputs from Reuters)

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