Market Outlook: Nifty to remain positive in July series, says MOFSL

The Nifty index began the June series on a positive note, and after the initial event euphoria subsided, the bulls took full control, pushing the index past the psychological 24,000 mark to a new all-time high of 24,087. Despite dropping to 21,280 levels during political volatility in the first week, the index rebounded by 2,800 points, achieving its highest-ever closing.

“Nifty formed a strong Bullish candle on expiry to expiry basis and has been making higher highs from the last eight series. June series witnessed an addition in open interest by 4.9% with a rise in price by 6.9% on an expiry-to-expiry basis which indicates built up of long position in the index,” said brokerage firm Motilal Oswal in a new report on Derivative Rollover.

Rollover of Nifty stood at 76.3%, which is higher than its quarterly average of 71% and higher than the rollover of the last four months, it added.

The brokerage firm anticipates that this positive trajectory in Nifty is expected to continue in July also. “Considering overall Derivatives activity, we are expecting the positive trajectory to continue in Nifty as we head in the July series. Now it has to hold above 23750 zones for an up move towards 24500 then 25000 zones whereas supports are placed at 23500 then 23000 zones,” it added.

Nifty closed near 24050 zones and At The Money Straddle (July Monthly 24050 Call and 24050 Put) is trading at net premium of around 750 Points, giving a broader range of 23300 to 24800 levels.

In terms of sectoral indices, banking, auto, metal, realty and IT sector witnessed the maximum buying interest in the month of June.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty opened on a positive note and, after underperforming for several series, finally saw a resurgence of bullish activity, driving it to a new all-time high of 52,988. Heavyweight stocks have been the driving force for the June series, propelling this rate-sensitive index by over 6,900 points.

“It formed a Bullish candle on expiry to expiry basis chart and has been forming higher highs from the last four series. Long built up was seen as open interest increased by 16.3% and price was up by 9% on an expiry-to-expiry basis,” the brokerage firm said.

The firm further added, “Rollover in Bank Nifty stood at 70.7%, which is near its quarterly average of 70.9% which indicates longs being carried over with the positive view for the next month. Bank Nifty has to hold above 52000 zones for an up move towards 54000 then 55000 zones while on the downside major support can be seen at 51133 levels.”

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) reversed their selling trend and collectively purchased equities amounting to ₹2,061 crore in the current month of June. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) maintained their buying streak for the thirteenth consecutive month, acquiring equities worth ₹21,975 crore so far in June. The FIIs' 'Long Short Ratio' in index futures demonstrated a full recovery across the entire series, fluctuating between 12.8% and 81.7%, ultimately settling at the upper end of this range.

During the June series, India VIX dropped sharply by 41.48%, falling from 24.18 to 14.15 levels. Volatility surged to highs around 31.7 at one point, causing significant swings in both directions. However, it subsequently eased, settling near its lower range, which reassured bullish sentiment on Dalal Street.