Bitcoin bets surge: Options traders have gained optimism, betting on the world's largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, reaching a record high of $80,000 in November 2024 regardless of who wins the 2024 United States elections, as per a Bloomberg report.
Earlier on October 21, Bitcoin edged near the $70,000 mark when US voter polls suggested that Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump was neck-to-neck with rival Democratic nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris.
However, Bloomberg has now reported that punters are increasingly betting the token will touch its year's high of $80,000 in November, regardless of a Harris or Trump victory — simply based on market sentiment.
While Trump has openly expressed his positive position and support for cryptocurrencies, Harris has reiterated calls for industry regulation. She has, however, departed from current President Joe Biden's “crackdown” stance on cryptos, and traders are viewing this as a step forward, the report noted.
Further, rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in the future have also improved trader sentiment.
Bloomberg reported that Bitcoin options' volatility amid the coming elections is “elevated”, adding that most wagers are “skewed” towards call options. Call options give traders the right to buy Bitcoin at new highs.
Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at crypto exchange BTSE, told CoinDesk, “Both Presidential candidates have adopted pro-crypto stances to appeal to voters, but it's tough to say if any of their promises will come to pass.”
Data compiled by crypto options exchange Deribit also showed that the put-to-call market is skewed more towards call options than puts. The open interest for call contracts expiring on November 29 is concentrated around $80,000, with $70,000 being the second most popular bet.
Further, open interest for the calls expiring on December 27 is concentrated near $100,000 and $80,000, while the most popular strike price of the calls expiring on November 8 is at $75,000, the BB report added.
David Lawant, head of research at crypto prime broker FalconX told Bloomberg that market consensus has turned positive for Bitcoin. Bitcoin has jumped about 61 per cent this year, last seen at $67,500 on October 23.
“I believe the market consensus is that Bitcoin is likely to perform well regardless of the election outcome. Our analysis shows that options activity surrounding the upcoming elections exhibits a notable topside-heavy bias,” Lawant said.
“We see traders buy calls near $68,000 and puts near $66,000, in other words, many continuously position and reposition for a breakout for either end. There is limited reason to collapse downwards after the election, so up makes more sense,” Yev Feldman, co-founder at SwapGlobal, told Bloomberg.
“This indicates that investors are leveraging the options market more as a tool for capturing potential upside rather than as a hedge against downside risks. For non-Bitcoin crypto assets, I see opinions more divided. The market shows less consensus on how these alternative cryptocurrencies might perform under different electoral scenarios," Lawant added.
“It is clear that the market is responding positively to the upcoming change in administration and policies --- whether it's Harris or Trump, traders and investors think any sort of change will be good. The fact that this coincides with the first Fed rate cuts in four years and a recent run-up in stock prices only adds to the thesis that Bitcoin could surpass its all-time high and reach $80,000,” Mei stated to CoinDesk.
(With inputs from Bloomberg)
