Hindi box office set for tepid end to 2024, up to 40% dip versus 2023 likely

With just one real blockbuster to show this year in horror comedy Stree 2, entertainment industry experts expect Hindi box office returns for 2024 to be 30-40% lower than in 2023.

Stree 2 collected ₹627.02 crore at the domestic box office, with the next best being Diwali releases Singham Again ( ₹259.95 crore) and Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3 ( ₹260.15 crore), according to data from entertainment portal Bollywood Hungama.

Comparatively, 2023 was marked by four movies that breached the ₹500 crore mark—Pathaan, Gadar 2, Jawan and Animal.

In absolute terms, 2023 saw box office collections for the Hindi market at ₹5,300 crore. This year, the number stands at only ₹3,500 crore as of mid-November, according to trade experts.

Even though Varun Dhawan-starrer Baby John and Allu Arjun’s Pushpa 2-The Rule (a Telugu movie that will be dubbed in Hindi) are slated for December and are expected to do well, it is unlikely that 2023’s numbers will be breached.

“It has clearly not been a great year for Bollywood,” film producer and distributor Sunny Khanna said, adding that even the two big Diwali releases—Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3 and Singham Again—haven’t been able to cross the ₹300-crore mark. “That’s not an encouraging sign,” he said.

Even dubbed versions of Hollywood films have not fired at the box office, compounding the Hindi market’s revenue woes. While science fiction film Venom-The Last Dance finished at ₹42.60 crore this October, Deadpool & Wolverine had earned ₹128.40 crore in July.

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Rahul Puri, managing director of Mukta Arts and Mukta A2 Cinemas, agreed the year’s box office collections should be significantly lower compared to 2023.

“Hindi being the largest industry has been impacted the most this year, particularly in the first six months,” Puri said, referring to the inconsistent flow of releases and almost no new films for several weeks between April and June during the Lok Sabha poll campaigns.

The other big takeaway is that movies with solo lead stars are no longer working well, independent trade analyst Sreedhar Pillai said.

While Stree 2 was a mid-budget film starring Rajkummar Rao and Shraddha Kapoor, mainstream faces such as Akshay Kumar (Sarfira, Bade Miyan Chote Miyan), Ajay Devgn (Maidaan, Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha, Alia Bhatt (Jigra) and Hrithik Roshan (Fighter) have seen their films deliver below par returns.

That said, some southern films have helped build momentum this year. Gautam Dutta, CEO for revenue and operations at PVR Inox Ltd, said Devara Part 1 (Telugu) and The Greatest of All Time (GOAT, Tamil) were standouts, showcasing the growing global appeal of regional cinema. Other notable south hits include Vettaiyan (Tamil), starring Rajinikanth.

“The performance of films across languages in 2024 has shown a mix of varied results, a lot of it owing to diverse content narratives across languages and varied treatments for the same,” Ashish Saksena, chief operating officer - cinemas at BookMyShow said.

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Saksena pointed out that Malayalam and Tamil films have particularly excelled, with releases like Aavesham, Premalu, Manjummel Boys, Meiyazhagan and Maharaja drawing considerable viewership in regions such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

To be sure, a few filmmakers have already locked dates for 2025, especially to cash in on big holidays and festive weekends.

While the year starts with Ram Charan’s Game Changer (a Telugu original dubbed in Hindi) and Akshay Kumar’s Sky Force, which are both slated for January, multiple sequels and franchises are scheduled for the rest of 2025.

This includes Raid 2, Dhadak 2, Jolly LLB 3, De De Pyaar De 2, Housefull 5, War 2, Baaghi 4, Kantara: A Legend Chapter 1 and Alpha.

While the sale of digital rights remains a challenge, industry experts say there is a need to revisit content strategies in general to better gauge the pulse of the audience.

“Nobody expected films like Shaitaan or Stree 2 to turn this big this year. So other than the biggies, the hope is that there can be a few surprises next year,” film producer, trade and exhibition expert Girish Johar said.

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