What the world thinks of Trump, Ukraine and Chinese supremacy

ON THE EVE of America’s presidential election, many people around the world are waiting on edge. Although non-Americans do not get a vote, the outcome of the election will have ramifications far beyond America’s borders on issues such as international trade, the credibility of Western defence alliances and the rise of China. In order to gauge where public opinion sits, The Economist, working with Globescan, a consulting and polling firm, asked 30,000 people worldwide for their views.

The results show widespread support for a Democratic Party victory in the presidential race but also that a significant cohort of fans of Donald Trump exists outside America. While Ukraine has been squeezed by Russia on the battlefield it still commands widespread support, even in the global south. And last, even as it holds a fraught election, and its might is tested by a new partnership of autocracies, America’s soft power far outstrips that of China, the poll shows.

Over the course of two months Globescan conducted online surveys of 30,000 people in 29 countries, plus one territory, Hong Kong. The surveys covered the major advanced economies and the largest emerging ones, except mainland China. Across this large and heterogeneous audience three questions were asked consistently: which candidate they would like to win the American election in November; whether they would rather see Russia or Ukraine win the war; and whether they would prefer America or China to be the world’s leading power. In each country a representative sample of about 1,000 was contacted in July and August. President Joe Biden withdrew from the race during the initial phase of the exercise, on July 21st; the questions were designed to allow for a candidate switch.

Start with the first question: whether respondents preferred the “Democratic Party candidate” or the “Republican Party candidate”. Across all countries an average of 45% of people chose the Democratic Party, whose candidate now is Kamala Harris, while an average of 33% preferred Mr Trump (see chart 1). In Europe the margin was bigger: 55% preferred the Democrats to win against just 26% who chose Mr Trump. Worldwide the Democrats were ahead with both genders and across all educational and income cohorts.

Yet despite his nativist politics there are strong seams of support from Mr Trump around the world. One example is young people. They were almost evenly split. Among those aged 25-34, for example, an average of 40% were in favour of a Democratic president and 38% wanted a Republican one. Across all age groups, Mr Trump came out ahead in one-third of countries or territories including Argentina, Egypt, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Vietnam. Possible explanations include sympathy for strongman rule and anger over the Biden administration’s Middle East policies.

What about the second question, on Ukraine? Across the world support for it was strong, with an average of 54% of people polled saying they would prefer to see it win the war, against just 20% who favoured Russia (see chart 2). Of the 30 countries or territories, more people supported Ukraine than Russia in 25 of them. Solidarity was strongest in Europe and among other American allies such as South Korea and Japan. Yet strikingly it was also robust in several big “non-aligned” emerging economies, including Brazil, Mexico and South Africa, whose governments sit on the fence or worse. Brazil is working with China to push for peace negotiations, while South Africa’s ruling party has close links to the Kremlin. Yet our poll suggests that even as the politicians of these countries indulge Russia their voters are far less keen. Communist-run Hong Kong was strongly pro-Ukraine.

Less encouragingly, the five countries where people backed Russia are big and important: Egypt, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam. One explanation for the position of India and Vietnam may be that they partly rely on arms from Russia and have historic links dating back to the cold war. Saudi support for Russia is troubling: the country hopes to secure a new military pact with America yet 37% of those asked want the Kremlin to win, against 19% for Ukraine. In Egypt, which is receiving $1.3bn in defence aid from America this year, 49% back Russia against 30% who support Ukraine. All of the five countries backing Russia hanker after a second Trump presidency.

The final question looked at who people want to lead the world; America or China. GlobeScan found remarkably little desire for a China-led order. On average 59% of people said they would prefer America as the world’s leading power if given a choice between it and China, which was picked by just 22% of respondents (see chart 3). Support for America was surprisingly strong in the global south. In India, the world’s most populous country, 79% favoured America, as did majorities in all five of the Latin American states polled. The three countries in Africa that were polled, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa, were also pro-American. The sting in the tail was that in one American treaty ally, Turkey, people preferred a Chinese-run world. Once again Egypt and Saudi Arabia, while relying on American military ties to a degree, had populations that wanted Chinese hegemony.

The picture painted by the polls suggests that on the question of who should win America’s election, the world leans towards Ms Harris but has a high degree of polarisation. Yet whoever will be America’s next president should consider that the world is largely behind Ukraine and that the United States has an enormous stock of international goodwill, placing it far ahead of China when it comes to soft power. A wise administration would build on this position, not detonate it.

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