Mint Primer | West Asia is on the boil: What it means for India

The killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut have heightened fears of a regional war in West Asia. While Israel remains on the brink, a tight-lipped Iran needs to be carefully watched. Mint explains.

What caused the spike in tensions?

The killing this week of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran hours after the assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut has caused this escalation. Haniyeh’s killing is seen by Iran as a violation of its sovereignty and the principles that underpin global order. While Iran attributes the killing to Israel, it remains silent and is on the brink. On the other hand, Israel has covertly triggered Iran, and directly called for an all-out war on the Hezbollah with the killing of Shukr, who it claims was responsible for the rocket that killed 12 youths in the occupied Golan Heights.

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What should we expect from Iran now?

Iran remains tight lipped in its response. It has galvanised the “axis of resistance” in the wake of the perceived humiliation, and the direct attack on its state sovereignty (the Hamas chief was killed in Tehran). The axis, built over the years with an aim to resist Israel and the US in West Asia, includes not only the Hamas, but also the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Shi’ite armed groups in Iraq and Syria. What remains to be seen is whether this will provoke an all-out regional war that could see the direct involvement of Iran, or whether it would stop short of restoring balance.

What is the likely end-game in this conflict?

It will shrink the narrow window for talks on de-escalation and prisoner exchange. There may be strikes, and counter strikes. And we might see a restoration of balance, if Iran actually builds a nuclear weapon. In any case, the war will bolster US presence in the region, and see a re-opening of battle fronts in the sea lanes and the war expanding to Lebanon.

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Will the crisis hit global trade further?

The escalation will hit global trade across channels, causing higher oil prices, increased inflation, squeezed household incomes. It will ofcourse hit economic growth particularly in oil importing economies. Any disruption in strategic waterways connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea will impact global energy security and maritime trade. That would directly hit economies. The situation remains fluid with very high stakes for global trade, energy security and maritime stability.

What could this mean for India?

India faces a hard dilemma. Its shares a close strategic partnership with Israel. But it has refrained from banning Hamas. Iran and Israel are critical to India’s economic stakes in the region and beyond. The escalation can impact initiatives like the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor, the 10-year India-Iran MOU for development of Chabahar port, and the I2U2, comprising India-Israel-UAE and the US.

Shweta Singh is associate professor, department of international relations, South Asian University.

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