VIENNA—Iran sharply increased its stockpile of nearly weapons-grade uranium amid its confrontation with Israel, according to the United Nations atomic-energy agency, in a challenge to the incoming Trump administration.
Iran’s decision to expand its stockpiles of nuclear fuel and its failure to fully cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA, which monitors Tehran’s work, is set to trigger fresh diplomatic pressure from Europe.
Concerns are growing in Western capitals that Iran could decide to develop a nuclear weapon, after comments by senior Iranian officials that Tehran has mastered most of the techniques for doing so. Israel’s hollowing-out of Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy in the Middle East, has also prompted a public debate in Iran about whether the country’s best form of deterrence lies in having an atomic bomb.
Iran has always claimed its nuclear work is purely for peaceful civilian purposes.
Both the incoming Trump administration and Tehran have sent mixed messages about whether they will seek confrontation or some kind of diplomatic engagement after President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.
Ahead of the elections, Trump said he wasn’t seeking a war or regime change. Since then, The Wall Street Journal reported, Iran last month told the Biden administration in writing that it wasn’t seeking to assassinate Trump. Last week, Trump confidant Elon Musk met with Iran’s U.N. ambassador, according to people familiar with the details.
Trump team officials say they will move to re-enact a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran’s economy and take steps to stop Iran from going nuclear. Israel is also now in a position to undertake military strikes against Iran’s nuclear program more easily.
Unless Iran reverses some of the steps it has taken over the past few years, the country will remain a nuclear-weapons threshold power—something that the Trump administration might find unacceptable. However, any deal to push back Tehran’s nuclear program will almost certainly require some form of economic benefit for Iran.
During talks in Tehran with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi last week, Iran said it was open to keeping its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium capped around current levels for the foreseeable future, according to a confidential report circulated to member states on Tuesday. The report also said that after Grossi’s visit, which ended Friday, inspectors observed Iran taking action to prepare to stop expanding the 60% stockpile.
However, a senior diplomat said that if Iran faces a censure resolution from European powers at the IAEA board of member-states meeting this week, Iran is unlikely to abide by the commitment.
In its report, the IAEA said Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium had increased by 17.6 kilograms to 182.3 kilograms, equivalent to nearly 402 pounds. Assuming no change, that means Trump would enter office in January with Iran having enough nuclear fuel for four atomic bombs. It would take Iran just a few days to convert the 60% material into weapons-grade material.
Iran’s stockpile of 20% material also increased modestly. David Albright, president and founder of the Institute for Science and International Security, said after the previous IAEA report in August that Iran already had enough enriched uranium to make 15 nuclear bombs in five months.
U.S. officials have previously said it would take Iran several months to field a nuclear weapon, although they say Iran isn’t currently working on building the bomb.
